通用人工智能未来之路的关键与路径（英）

MATT CHESSEN, SWAPTIK CHOWDHURYPivots and Pathways on the Road to Artificial General Intelligence FuturesExpert InsightsPERSPECTIVE ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUEOctober 2025For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/PEA4178-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.PE-A4178-1 iii About This Paper This paper introduces a common vocabulary to support more-productive policymaking on artificial general intelligence (AGI). As governments, researchers, and civil society grapple with the fast-moving trajectory of advanced artificial intelligence (AI), discussions about AGI are often hindered by a lack of shared terms and assumptions. Policymakers and AI stakeholders frequently talk past each other, referencing different implicit visions of the future, which we call AGI futures. This misalignment hampers meaningful debate and the identification and assessment of emerging AGI trajectories. Policy discussions may be anchored in presumptive future pathways, causing policymakers to overlook the full breadth of possible AGI futures when developi