世界银行-拉丁美洲和加勒比宏观贫困展望，2025年10月：发展中国家的国别分析和预测（英）

MMMPPOOO10/2025Latin America and the CaribbeanCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldMACRO POVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Macro Poverty Outlook / October 2025Macro Poverty Outlook / October 20251Latin America and the CaribbeanArgentinaBahamas, The Barbados Belize BoliviaBrazil ChileColombiaCosta Rica Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala GuyanaHaiti Honduras JamaicaMexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay PeruSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSuriname Trinidad and TobagoUruguayARGENTINAThe stabilization program eliminated the fiscal deficit,reduced inflation, and improved sovereign risk. Higherreserves allowed exchange rate flexibilization. RealGDP is projected to grow 4.6 percent in 2025. Povertyhas fallen, though progress may stall amid weak labormarkets and subdue demand. The political cycle pre-sents considerable risks to the economic outlook.Key conditions and challengesArgentina’s ongoing efforts to address structural macroeconomicchallenges provide a favorable backdrop for sustainable growth.Abundantnaturalresources,skilledhumancapital,andcomparativeadvantages in agroindustry and services remain key assets for long-term growth. However, decades of abrupt policy shifts and recurrentmacroeconomic crises—driven by fiscal dominance,monetary fi-nancingofdeficits,andrigidregulatoryframeworks—havetemperedresilience,constrainedinvestment,andunderminedconfidence.The authorities have advanced an ambitious stabilization programanchored in strict fiscal discipline, the phased removal of