人工智能现在也成了一个债务泡沫，悄然超越所有银行，成为市场上最大的板块

PREMIUM⾼级版AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To BecomeThe Largest Sector In The Market⼈⼯智能现在也成了⼀个债务泡沫，悄然超越所有银⾏，成为市场上最⼤的板块BY TYLER DURDENTHURSDAY, OCT 09, 2025 - 10:44 AMLast week we published a lengthy article discussing in detail the current generation's (because everygeneration has one, just ask Global Crossing) "infinite money" circle jerk circular deals which havebecome the de jour staple of the AI bubble and which, simplified, look something like this...上周我们发表了⼀篇⻓篇⽂章，详细讨论了当代（因为每⼀代⼈都有这么⼀个时期，问问环球电讯就知道了）的“⽆限资⾦”循环交易，这类交易已成为当下⼈⼯智能泡沫的主要特征，简单来说，其模式⼤致如下……... or, using a slightly more sophisticated variation from Bloomberg, like this...……或者，⽤彭博社的⼀个稍复杂些的变体，是这样的……... which JPM's Michael Cembalest described laconically as follows...……摩根⼤通的迈克尔·森巴莱斯特对此简短地描述如下……Oracle’s stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI, an amountof money OpenAI doesn’t earn yet, to provide cloud computing facilities that Oraclehasn’t built yet, and which will require 4.5 GW of power (the equivalent of 2.25 HooverDams or four nuclear plants), as well as increased borrowing by Oracle whose debt to equityratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Metaand Google. 在获得OpenAI承诺的每年600亿美元后，甲⻣⽂的股价飙升了25%。⽽这笔钱OpenAI⽬前尚未赚到，甲⻣⽂也尚未建成相关的云计算设施，且这需要4.5吉瓦的电⼒（相当于2.25座胡佛⽔坝或4座核电站），此外，甲⻣⽂还需增加借款，其资产负债率已达500%，相⽐之下，亚⻢逊为50%，微软为30%，Meta和⾕歌则更低。There is no way for Oracle to pay for this with cash flow. They must raise equity or debt tofund their ambitions. Until now, the AI infrastructure boom has been almost entirely self-fundedby the cash flows of a select few hyperscalers. Oracle has broken the pattern. It is willing toleverage up to hundreds of billions to seize a share. The stable oligopoly is cracking…Theimplications are profound. Amazon, Microsoft and Google can no longer treat AI infrastructureas a discretionary investment. They must defend their turf. What had been a disciplined, cash-flow-funded race may now turn into a debt-fueled arms race. 甲⻣⽂公司⽆法⽤现⾦流来⽀付这笔费⽤。他们必须通过增发股票或举债来为⾃⼰的雄⼼壮志提供资⾦。到⽬前为⽌，⼈⼯智能基础设施的繁荣⼏乎完全是由少数⼏家超⼤规模科技公司的现⾦流⾃筹资⾦推动的。甲⻣⽂打破了这⼀模式。它愿意举债数千亿美元来抢占⼀席之地。稳定的寡头垄断格局正在瓦解……其影响是深远的。亚⻢逊、微软和⾕歌不能再将⼈⼯智能基础设施视为可⾃由⽀配的投资了。它们必须捍卫⾃⼰的地盘。这场原本由现⾦流⽀撑、井然有序的竞争，如今可能会演变成⼀场由债务驱动的军备竞赛。... and which has conjured out of thin air massive amounts of investment capital which as Jensen Huangwas kind enough to admit to CNBC earlier today, actually does not even exist...……并且凭空变出了巨额的投资资⾦，正如⻩仁勋今天早些时候在接受CNBC采访时坦⾔的那样，这些资⾦实际上根本不存在……Watch on X... but will at some point in the future, either in the form of future cash from operations, equity raises(don't tell current investors) or debt. Well, really just debt. ……但在未来的某个时刻，⽆论是以未来的经营现⾦流、股权融资（别告诉现有投资者）还是债务的形式。嗯，实际上只有债务。Lots and lots of debt, because with negligible enterprise penetration and the biggest use case so far beinga $19.99 monthly subscription for lazy college students who are outsourcing their essay writing to somechatbot, someone has to pay for the $500 billion in annual capex.债务堆积如⼭，