IMF-税制改革、补贴与劳动力供给：土耳其的经验教训（英）

Tax Reform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye Silvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald, and Carolina Osorio-Buitron WP/25/187IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP * The authors would like to thank Ming Ma for excellent research support.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/187IMF Working Paper European Department, Fiscal Affairs Department and Research Department Tax Reform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye Prepared by Silvia Domit, Yomna Gaafar, Duncan MacDonald, and Carolina Osorio-Buitron* Authorized for distribution by James Walsh September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Despite recent progress, Türkiye’s low labor force participation (LFP) rate is macrocritical and stands out internationally. This paper examines two channels through which fiscal policy can affect LFP. First, we estimate the impact of Türkiye’s 2022 Minimum Living Allowance reform, which removed tax disadvantages faced by secondary earners. Second, we simulate the impact of conditional subsidies on Türkiye’s LFP. The analysis was based on four empirical models estimated for Türkiye using labor force survey micro data. The results confirmed that: (i) Turkish secondary earners increased their labor supply by more than primary earners following the removal of tax disadvantages in the 2022 reform; (ii) conditional childcare subsidies lead to a large increase in LFP at relatively low fiscal costs; (iii) conditional subsidies can achieve better labor market outcomes and further reduce fiscal costs compared to direct transfers. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Domit, S., Gaafar, Y., MacDonald, D., and Osorio-Buitron, C. (2025). “Tax Reform, Subsidies, and Labor Supply: Lessons from Türkiye”, IMF Working Paper. JEL Classification Numbers: H20, H23, H24, H31, J08, J16, J22 Keywords: Türkiye, Tax Reform, Labor Force Participation, Childcare Subsidies, Employment, Personal Income Tax, TaxFit Author’s E-Mail Address: sdomit@imf.org, ygaafar@imf.org, dmacdonald@imf.org, cosorioBuitron@imf.org Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 2A.Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3B.The Toolkit ..........................................................................................................