美联储-一种政策利率，多种立场：来自欧洲货币联盟的证据（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)One Policy Rate, Many Stances: Evidence from the EuropeanMonetary UnionManuel Gonz´alez-Astudillo, Diego Vil´an2025-087Please cite this paper as:Gonz´alez-Astudillo, Manuel, and Diego Vil´an (2025). “One Policy Rate, Many Stances:Evidence from the European Monetary Union,” Finance and Economics DiscussionSeries 2025-087.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.087.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.One Policy Rate, Many Stances:Evidence from the European Monetary UnionManuel Gonz´alez-Astudillo †1,2 and Diego Vil´an ‡11Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., USA2Escuela Superior Polit´ecnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Guayaquil, EcuadorSeptember 1, 2025AbstractA challenge for conducting monetary policy in a currency union is the diverseeconomic conditions among member states. Such disparities can drive natural interestrates apart, thereby undermining the stabilizing role of a unified monetary policy. Toassess the stance of monetary policy across Eurozone-19 countries, we estimate theirnatural rates of interest (r∗) and inflation trends (π∗) to construct a measure of thecountry-level neutral nominal interest rates (r∗ + π∗) over 1999-2025, using a semi-structural model that jointly characterizes the trend and cyclical components of keymacroeconomic variables such as output, unemployment, inflation, 10-year governmentbond yields, and the common policy interest rate. Our setup improves upon those inthe existing literature by allowing both a short-run interest rate gap—driven by the(shadow) policy rate—and a long-run interest rate gap—driven by the country-specific10-year government bond yields—to affect and reflect economic conditions. We alsoimpose cointegration between the dynamics of the country-specific latent variables andcommon counterparts to incorporate co-movements across the euro area economies.Our results show that the stance of monetary policy is homogeneous across the countriesin our sample, but that a relatively highly degree of heterogeneity emerges at keyhistorical turning points.Keywords: Common monetary policy challenges, Euro area economies, Interest rategap, Neutral interest rate, Sovereign debt risk.JEL Classification Numbers: C32, E32, E42, E52.∗The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpretedas reflecting the views of the Board of Go