IMF-阿尔及利亚：选定问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/271 ALGERIA SELECTED ISSUES This Selected Issues paper on Algeria was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on August 26, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2025 ALGERIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Middle East and Central Asia Department Prepared By Gian Plebani (MCD), William Gbohoui (AFR), and Charles Vellutini (FAD). With support from Sofia Cerna Rubinstein and Rodrigo Huguet. ENHANCING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN ALGERIA ___________________ 3 A. Algeria’s Monetary Policy Framework ________________________________________________ 3 B. Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Transmission in Algeria _________________ 10 C. Structural Impediments to Monetary Policy Transmission in Algeria _______________ 13 D. Policy Implications _________________________________________________________________ 15 FIGURES 1. Oil Prices and Liquidity Management in Algeria ______________________________________ 4 2. Bank of Algeria’s Monetary Policy Operations, NFA and Inflation 2002-24 ___________ 5 3. Credit to the Government is Rising ___________________________________________________ 5 4. Interest Rates and Bank Liquidity _____________________________________________________ 6 5. Monetary Policy Transmission Channels _____________________________________________ 8 6. Transmission on the Interbank Rate, the Exchange Rate, and Inflation _______________ 9 7. Impulse-Response Functions of Exchange Rate, Inflation and NFA _________________ 12 8. Impulse Response Functions of Structural VAR for Monetary Policy Transmission _ 14 APPENDIX I. Econometric Results ________________________________________________________________ 17 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 24 STRENGTHENING THE REVENUE MOBILIZATION STRATEGY _____________________ 25 A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 25 B. Estimating Algeria’s Tax Potential and the Scope for Additional Tax Revenues _____ 26 CONTENTS August 26, 2025 ALGERIA 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND C. Looking Forward: Reform Options _________________________________________________________ 31 D. Conclusion: Towards a Domestic Resource Mobilization Strategy _________________________ 38 FIGURES 1. Share of Oil and Gas in Revenue and International Comparisons ___________________________ 26 2. Algeria’s Non-Hydrocarbon Tax Potential (2021-2022), Model 1 ___________________________ 28 3. Algeria’s Non-Hydrocarbon Tax Potenti