美联储-注意力依赖型货币对家庭信仰的传导（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission to HouseholdBeliefsJaemin Jeong, Eunseong Ma, Choongryul Yang2025-084Please cite this paper as:Jeong, Jaemin, Eunseong Ma, and Choongryul Yang (2025).“Attention-DependentMonetary Transmission to Household Beliefs,” Finance and Economics Discussion Se-ries 2025-084.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.084.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission toHousehold Beliefs∗Jaemin Jeong†Duke UniversityEunseong Ma‡Yonsei UniversityChoongryul Yang§Federal Reserve BoardSeptember 2025AbstractWhen do households listen to the Fed? We show the answer lies in a simple but powerfulforce: household attention to macroeconomic conditions. We develop a model where atten-tion acts as a crucial gatekeeper for the pass-through of policy news to beliefs, and confirmits predictions using household survey data. We find that belief revisions to monetary policysurprises are concentrated among attentive individuals—particularly those with high finan-cial stakes—and this effect strengthens dramatically during uncertain times. This implies theexpectations channel is most potent when it matters most, suggesting policymakers shouldaccount for the time-varying and heterogeneous nature of public attention.Keywords: Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Rational inattention, Behavioral macroe-conomicsJEL Codes: D83, D84, E31, E52∗We thank ChaeWon Baek, Andrew Figura, Byoungchan Lee, Ekaterina Peneva, Jane Ryngaert, and participantsat 2023 SNDE Young Economist Workshop and the 16th Joint Economics Symposium of Six Leading East AsianUniversities for their valuable comments and suggestions. We gratefully acknowledge financial supports fromR.K. Cho Research Cluster Program. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve System. First version: January 2024. This version:September 2025†419 Chapel Drive, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708, U.S.A. Email: jaemin.jeong@duke.edu.‡50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, South Korea. Email: masilver@yonsei.ac.kr.§20th Street & Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20551, U.S.A. Email: cryang1224@gmail.com.11IntroductionCentral banks emphasize expectations as an important channel of monetary transmission.Yet when households actually update their