IMF谨慎对待：国内债务重组的收益和成本（英）

Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs of Domestic Debt Restructurings Jean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi WP/25/179 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP * The authors are grateful to Nikolay Gueorguiev, Era Dabla-Norris, Davide Furceri, Tamon Asonuma, Krzysztof Bankowski, MarkGriffiths, Asel Isakova, Hui Miao, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Francisco Roldan, Arthur Sode, Eriko Togo, and Fang Yang for theirinsightful comments and the useful discussions. They also thank the participants of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department seminar,SPR’s Sovereign Debt Workshop, IMF’s surveillance meeting and FAD’s conjunctural meeting. We also thank Dánea TrejoCarcamo and Victor Maradiaga for editorial assistance. The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarilythose of the IMF, its Executive Board, or management.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/179IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs of Domestic Debt Restructurings Prepared by Jean-Marc Atsebi and Jeta Menkulasi* Authorized for distribution by Nikolay Gueorguiev September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: With increasing debt vulnerabilities, domestic debt may become an important—though still distinct––part of debt restructurings. This paper aims to contribute to the discourse by examining the factors that precipitate domestic debt restructurings (DDRs) and their implications for macro-fiscal outcomes. We find that: (i) DDRs are less effective than external debt restructurings (EDRs) in reducing public debt and interest payments; and (ii) they entail deeper, more persistent costs to output and domestic credit. Still, well-designed DDRs can be critical for restoring macroeconomic stability and sustainability, regardless of costs. Their impacts depend on design, instruments, sovereign-bank nexus, concurrent fiscal consolidation, and financial development. Finally, the paper shows that gross international reserves and the presence of an IMF-supported program can mitigate the costs associated with DDRs while preserving their debt relief benefits. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Atsebi, J., Menkulasi, J. (2025). Tread with Care: Benefits and Costs of Domestic Debt Restructurings. IMF Working Paper, WP/25/179. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. JEL Classification Numbers: H63; E44; F34; G01; H12; E62 Keywords:Domestic Debt Restructuring (DDR); Macroeconomic Impact; Public Debt; Interest Payment; Output Loss; Finanial Stability