投行报告-数据（非）可靠性（英）

ISSUE 142 | September 11, 2025 | 4:00 PM EDTInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Substantial downward revisions to May and June US payrolls data, the subsequent dismissal of the BLS Commissioner, and a large downward revision to the level of employment in the BLS’ annual benchmark review have fueled concerns about US economic data quality. But such concerns aren’t new or unique to the US. So, how concerned should we really be about the quality of global economic data? Former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen, Laffer Associates’ Arthur Laffer, Harvard’s Alberto Cavallo, and GS’ Joseph Briggs and Ronnie Walker all see some reasons for concern, but Briggs stresses that global economic data mostly remain reliable. Will that remain the case? Groshen and Cavallo worry about the future of US data, partly owing to the Trump Administration’s recent actions, while Laffer argues such actions should help ensure data reliability ahead. We explore what’s at stake if trust in economic data is lost, concluding that the economic costs could be significant, TIPS would be directly impacted, and the Dollar could weaken further. “ INTERVIEWS WITH: Erica Groshen, Former BLS Commissioner, Senior Economics Advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Research Fellow at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Arthur Laffer, Founder and Chairman of Laffer Associates Alberto Cavallo, Professor at Harvard Business School, Co-founder of the Billion Prices Project and PriceStats Q&A ON US DATA REVISIONS Ronnie Walker, GS US Economics Research GLOBAL DATA: STILL RELIABLE, FOR NOW Joseph Briggs, GS Global Economics Research DEALING WITH DODGY DATA Andrew Tilton, GS Asia Economics Research DATA RELIABILITY: ONE MORE WORRY FOR USD Michael Cahill, GS FX Research A POTENTIAL (DATA) TAX ON TIPS William Marshall, GS Rates Research WHAT’S INSIDERather than flaws in the statistical system, two large revisions in the same direction—as occurred for May and June payrolls data—instead suggest that underlying economic conditions may be shifting.- Erica GroshenPeriodic shakeups are healthy, helping to ensure our official statistics remain accurate and our decisions well-informed. - Arthur LafferOnce the door is open for people to start questioning whether the heads of statistical agencies are motivated by anything other than a desire to measure the truth, it is very difficult to close it, even as leadership shifts. - Alberto Cavallo “Allison Nathan | allison.nathan@gs.com Jenny Grimberg | jenny.grimberg@gs.com Ashley Rhodes | ashley.rhodes@gs.com DATA (UN)RELIABILITY...AND MORENote: The following is a redacted version of the original report published September 11, 2025 [29 pgs]. hEl Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2