IMF-研发分配不当是否导致了增长放缓？（英）

Did R&D Misallocation Contribute to Slower Growth? Nils H. Lehr WP/25/183IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/183IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Did R&D Misallocation Contribute to Slower Growth? Prepared by Nils H. Lehr Authorized for distribution by Gustavo Adler September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper provides evidence that rising misallocation in the R&D sector contributed to the recent slowdown in U.S. productivity growth. I develop a growth accounting framework allowing for misallocation of R&D resources across firms captured by wedges between their marginal cost and benefits of R&D. I show that R&D wedges can be measured from R&D returns and document large and persistent differences in R&D returns across US-listed firms. Combining data and model, I estimate that frictions reduced productivity growth by 18% over 1975–2014 and that rising misallocation in the R&D sector accounts for 25% of the growth slowdown.JEL Classification Numbers: O32, O33, D24 Keywords: R&D; productivity growth; growth slowdownAuthor’s E-Mail Address: nlehr@imf.orgDid R&D Misallocation Contribute to Slower Growth?∗Nils H. Lehr†IMFSeptember 12, 2025AbstractThis paper provides evidence that rising misallocation in the R&D sector con-tributed to the recent slowdown in U.S. productivity growth.I develop a growthaccounting framework allowing for misallocation of R&D resources across firms cap-tured by wedges between their marginal cost and benefits of R&D. I show that R&Dwedges can be measured from R&D returns and document large and persistent differ-ences in R&D returns across US-listed firms. Combining data and model, I estimatethat frictions reduced productivity growth by 18% over 1975–2014 and that risingmisallocation in the R&D sector accounts for 25% of the growth slowdown.∗I especially thank Stephen J. Terry, Pascual Restrepo, Tarek A. Hassan, and David Lagakos for their con-tinued guidance, feedback, and encouragement. I benefited from the advice and comments of many includingStefania Garetto, Adam Guren, Maarten De Ridder, and the participants of the Macro Lunch Seminar, GreenLine Macro Meeting, Econometric Society European Winter Meeting, and the Global Entrepreneurship andInnovation Research Conference.†Email: nlehr@imf.orgU.S. productivity growth has slowed down significantly in the last two decades. While totalfactor productivity (TFP) grew 0.5% per year in 1975–