增长、结构转型与碳排放（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11214Growth, Structural Transformation and Carbon EmissionsAlen MulabdicGaurav NayyarKatherine Stapleton Prosperity VerticalOffice of the Chief EconomistSeptember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11214The environmental Kuznets curve postulates an invert-ed-U relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth. And economic growth has been synon-ymous with structural transformation. How do patterns of growth and structural transformation relate to carbon emis-sions? Based on data across almost 100 countries between 1960 and 2017, we find that the movement of workers into the manufacturing and services sectors is associated with a higher carbon emissions intensity of GDP. How-ever, this positive association diminishes at higher shares of employment in both the manufacturing sector and modern, knowledge-intensive services. The diminishing positive association between emissions intensity and structural transformation towards these sectors is more discernible for developing economies compared with advanced econ-omies. Further, based on sector-specific carbon emissions across 66 countries between 1995 and 2018, we find evi-dence of convergence in the carbon emissions intensity of production across countries in all sectors, with the potential for further reductions in developing economies, especially given relatively high indirect carbon emissions through inter-sectoral linkages.This paper is a product of the he Office of the Chief Economist, Prosperity Vertical. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at amulabdic@worldbank.org, gnayyar@worldbank.org, kstapleton@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access.