IMF-危地马拉：2025年第四条协商新闻稿；员工报告；危地马拉执行主任的发言（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/260 GUATEMALA 2025 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR GUATEMALA Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2025 Article IV consultation with Guatemala, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: • A Press Release summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its September 5, 2025 consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation with Guatemala. • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on September 5, 2025, following discussions that ended on June 20, 2025 with the officials of Guatemala on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on July 31, 2025. • An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff. • A Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala. The document listed below will be separately released. Selected Issues The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2025 PR 25/289 IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guatemala FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – September 8, 2025: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Guatemala.1 The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 Thanks to prudent macroeconomic management, Guatemala has maintained a resilient economy, achieved low inflation, ample policy buffers and, for the last few years, a positive current account; all these factors have contributed to increasingly favorable market access. However, reforms are needed to shift the country into a high investment/high growth equilibrium and to meaningfully reduce poverty. The macroeconomic outlook remains strong, though there is elevated uncertainty related to changing trade and migration policies abroad. Economic growth is expected to hold at 3.8 percent in 2025, with the sizeable fiscal impulse offsetting the softening in private demand. External headwinds are expected to keep growth around 3.5 percent in 2026–27, while in later years, growth could converge to 4 percent owing to infrastructure investments and ongoing reforms, including to improve governance and quality of public spending. Inflation is pr