工业工业链任性：海湾合作委员会应对全球冲击的准备状态（英）

Frederic OzeirJohnny AyoubCedric ManoukianINDUSTRIAL SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCEGCC preparedness amid global disruptions© Oliver Wyman2Industrial Supply Chain Resilience: GCC Preparedness Amid Global DisruptionsSUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE, WHY NOW?The vulnerabilities of global supply chains have been highlighted recently by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change-induced natural disasters, cybersecurity threats, logistics obstacles, and geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Industries across the spectrum have been forced to grapple with production delays, shortages, an increase in prices, growing demand, and unexpected bottlenecks. This has all highlighted the critical importance of resilient supply chains.Industrial sector supply chains — meaning the manufacturing steps covering raw materials sourcing and processing, components manufacturing, and assembly, as well as the movement of these goods — are particularly exposed to such vulnerabilities. This is due to the concentration of resources and manufacturing activities in specific countries combined with the global nature of most industrial supply chains — these factors highly impact the flow of goods.For example, in terms of critical minerals, Congo supplies 68% of the world’s cobalt and Chile 23% of global copper, while China is dominant across all 17 rare earth elements (REEs), representing 70% of global supply.1 Also, Indonesia contributes 48% of the world’s nickel, and Australia accounts for 47% of global lithium mining.2Exhibit 1: Global supply of critical minerals, 2022Copper supplyChile23%Cobalt supplyCongo68%Nickel supplyIndonesia48%Lithium supplyAustralia47%REEs supplyChina70%Source: International Energy Agency: Clean energy supply chains vulnerabilities Geographical concentration is also present across minerals refining, with China responsible for refining 44% of all lithium and 77% of all cobalt and about 90% of REEs.3 In addition, critical manufactured goods such as electrolyzers, used to produce green hydrogen, face significant supply chain risks due to both a supply shortage and the concentration of their manufacturing in China (40%).41 USGS (2023). Mineral Commodity Summaries2 Ibid, footnote 13 Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (2023)4 IEA. (2023). Energy Technology Perspectives© Oliver Wyman3Industrial Supply Chain Resilience: GCC Preparedness Amid Global DisruptionsExhibit 2: China’s global share of refining critical minerals and manufacturing critical goodsSolarmanufacturing(2021)80%Electrolysersmanufacturing(2021)40%REEsrefining(2022)90%Cobaltrefining(2022)77%Lithiumrefining(2022)44%Source: Benchmark Minerals Intelligence; International Energy Agency — Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 The industrial sector is an enabler for other industries, and so disruptions here have a domino effect that can amplify vulnerabilities in vital sectors that are important for health, safety, and security. For instance, the health sector relies on the timely delivery of medical equipment and