IMF-马里：选定问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/256 MALI SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Mali was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 16, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2025 MALI SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAfrican Department Prepared by Luc Tucker THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MALI ______________________________ 2 A. Evidence of Heightened Uncertainty in Mali _________________________________________ 2B. The Impact of Uncertainty on Businesses and Households in Mali ___________________ 5C. Conclusion ___________________________________________________________________________ 8FIGURES 1. Mentions of Uncertainty in Mali ______________________________________________________ 22. External Financing to Mali ____________________________________________________________ 33. Interest Premia over Equivalent Euro-Area Rates in Maliand the Rest of the WAEMU ____________________________________________________________ 54. Correlation Between Uncertainty and GDP Growth in Mali ___________________________ 75. Distribution of GDP Growth Forecasts According to a Growth-at-Risk Model ________ 7ANNEXES I. Measuring Uncertainty Using Economic Reports and Global News Coverage _______ 10II. Methodology for the Growth-at-Risk Model for Mali ______________________________ 12References ____________________________________________________________________________ 13 CONTENTS July 16, 2025 MALI 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MALI1 This paper shows how multiple challenges facing Mali over a number of years have increased economic uncertainty. Specifically, economic agents have less confidence about predicting the future and see an increased risk of negative outcomes. Part of that uncertainty is the unavoidable result of exogenous shocks and global economic developments, but some is also due to policy decisions made by the authorities. Heightened policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on GDP growth in Mali by reducing the ability of businesses and households to plan ahead with confidence, which typically results in lower investment and consumption. This paper highlights some ways the authorities in Mali could reduce policy uncertainty, which would create the conditions for stronger GDP growth. A. Evidence of Heightened Uncertainty in Mali Uncertainty Has Been Elevated in Mali since 2012... 1. One leading empirical measure of uncertainty in Mali has been elevated for some time, reflecting the multiple challenges over that per