IMF-欧元化国家的货币政策传导：来自新兴欧洲的证据（英）

Monetary Policy Transmission in Euroized Countries: Evidence from Emerging Europe Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski, Mengxue Wang, and Zeju Zhu WP/25/177 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/177IMF Working Paper European Department Monetary Policy Transmission in Euroized Countries: Evidence from Emerging Europe Prepared by Wentong Chen, Fazurin Jamaludin, Florian Misch, Alex Pienkowski, Mengxue Wang, and Zeju Zhu** Authorized for distribution by Jan Kees Martijn September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper studies domestic monetary policy transmission in European countries with a significant share of lending and deposits in foreign currency, referred to as ‘euroized economies’. We find that the impact of domestic monetary policy shocks on both inflation and GDP diminishes with the degree of euroization across countries: the effects are twice as high in non-euroized countries compared to countries in our sample with the highest level of euroization. We further examine the exchange rate, credit and interest rate transmission channels, which are typically less effective in euroized economies. We show that domestic monetary policy has at best limited effects on the exchange rate. In addition, during the post-pandemic monetary tightening episodes, an increase in foreign-currency loans often softened the decline in overall credit growth, and rates of foreign-currency loans have followed the ECB policy rate rather than the domestic ones. By contrast, our analysis suggests that the pass-through to interest rates of domestic currency loans is similar across countries with different levels of euroization. JEL Classification Numbers: E52, E58, F41 Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, Euroization, Emerging markets Author’s E-Mail Address: wc422@cornell.edu, FJamaludin@imf.org, FMisch@imf.org, APienkowski@imf.org, MWang3@imf.org, ZZhu2@imf.org * Florian Misch and Mengxue Wang are corresponding authors. The authors would like to thank Helge Berger, Jan Kees Martijn,Luis Brandao Marques, Donal McGettigan, Laura Papi, Anke Weber, Yan Chen, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Yunhui Zhao, ThomasKroen, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Kareem Ismail, Luisa Charry, Anh Nguyen, participants of the Monetary Policy Analytical Working Group in the European department and staff of the Bank of Albania and the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia for valuable comments. IMF WOR