非洲经济研究中心-现金转移能拯救生命吗？肯尼亚大规模实验的证据（英）

Can Cash Transfers Save Lives?Evidence from a Large-Scale Experiment in Kenya∗Michael Walker r○ Nick Shankar r○ Edward Miguelr○ Dennis Egger r○ Grady KilleenAugust 12, 2025AbstractWe estimate the impacts of large-scale unconditional cash transfers on child survival.One-time transfers of USD 1000 were provided to over 10,500 poor households across 653randomized villages in Kenya. We collected census data on over 100,000 births, includ-ing on mortality and cause of death, and detailed data on household health behaviors.Unconditional cash transfers (accounting for spillovers) lead to 48% fewer infant deathsbefore age one and 45% fewer child deaths before age five. Detailed data on cause ofdeath, transfer timing relative to birth, and the location of health facilities indicate thatunconditional cash transfers and access to delivery care are complements in generatingmortality reductions: the largest gains are estimated in neonatal and maternal causes ofdeath largely preventable by appropriate obstetric care and among households living closeto physician-staffed facilities and those who receive the transfer around the time of birth,and treatment leads to a large increase in hospital deliveries (by 45%). The infant andchild mortality declines are concentrated among poorer households with below medianassets or predicted consumption. The transfers also result in a substantial decline of 51%in female labor supply in the three months before and the three months after a birth,and improved child nutrition. Infant and child mortality largely revert to pre-programlevels after cash transfers end. Despite not being the main aim of the original program,we show that unconditional cash transfers in this setting may be a cost-effective way toreduce infant and child deaths.JEL codes: I15, O1, O15∗AEA Trial Registry: AEARCTR-0000505, https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/505.Walker:University of California, Berkeley; Shankar: University of California, Berkeley; Miguel: University of Cal-ifornia, Berkeley and NBER, emiguel@berkeley.edu (corresponding author); Egger: University of Oxford;Killeen: University of California, Berkeley. Thanks to Jasmin Baier, Ilaria Dal Barco, Daniel Han, LaynaLowe, Prince Muraguri, Rachel Pizatella-Haswell, and Maya Shen for excellent research assistance, andCarol Nekesa, Andrew Wabwire and REMIT Kenya for data collection and support, and many seminar andconference participants for helpful comments. This research was supported by grants from the NationalScience Foundation, International Growth Centre, CEPR/Private Enterprise Development in Low-IncomeCountries (PEDL), Weiss Family Foundation, an anonymous donor, and Open Philanthropy (recommendedby GiveWell). The study received IRB approval from Maseno University, Strathmore University and U.C.Berkeley. The author order was certified randomized (AEA confirmation code WbU2cK pQIix).1IntroductionThe gradient between health and socioeconomic status — across societies and across in-dividua