城市与气候变化-识别、测量和评估热浪公共政策（英）

Cities and Climate ChangeIdentifying, Measuring and Evaluating Public Policy for HeatwavesDIOGO PROSDOCIMIThis document was submitted as a dissertation in December 2024 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Frederick S. Pardee Ph.D. in Policy Analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Kelly Klima (chair), Robert Lempert, and Maria DeYoreo.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation’s funded SHADE: Surface Heat Assessment for Developed Environments (PREEVENTS-1664091). The institutional support and funding were instrumental in making this research possible.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RGSDA4274-1.About the RAND School of Public PolicyThe RAND School of Public Policy has specialized in graduate-level policy education since its founding in 1970. The RAND School is home to the Frederick S. Pardee Ph.D. in Policy Analysis, which is the original public policy Ph.D. program in the United States and the only Ph.D. program based at an independent public policy research organization. To learn more about the RAND School of Public Policy, visit www.rand.edu.Published in 2025 by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. is a registered trademark. iii Abstract As global temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, urban areas face escalating challenges from the heat island effect and increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events, as well as regionally from urban heat islands, posing significant risks to human health and well-being. While cities have historically demonstrated resilience to physical damage from disasters, they are not immune to change. The compounding effects of climate change present complex challenges that necessitate a nuanced understanding and effective policy responses. This dissertation addresses gaps in the literature by examining methods for measuring vulnerability to extreme heat events and evaluating policies to enhance urban resilience. The dissertation begins with a comprehensive literature review, discussing the definitions of heatwaves, climate and weather event risks, climate adaptations, resilience, and the health impacts of extreme heat events. Three empirical papers follow, each contributing to our understanding of vulnerability and resilience in urban contexts. The first paper explores the challenges of quantifying urban population vulnerability to extreme heat events, using Monte Carlo simulations to assess the impact of measurement error on vulnerability indexes. The findings underscore the importance of validating vulnerability measures against health outcomes to avoid misleading conclusions. The second paper focuses on understanding excess deaths in Rio de Janeiro during extreme heat events, constructing and validating a heat vulnerability index and identifying key vulnerability factors through factor an