欧洲央行-地理与收入：碳税的异质性效应（英）

Working Paper Series Geography versus income: the heterogeneous effects of carbon taxation Charles Labrousse, Yann Perdereau Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3104 AbstractThe distributive effects of carbon taxation are critical for its political accept-ability and depend on both income and geographic factors. Using French admin-istrative data, household surveys, and matched employer-employee records, wedocument that rural households spend 2.8 times more on fossil fuels than urbanhouseholds and are employed in firms that emit 2.7 times more greenhouse gases.We incorporate these insights into a spatial heterogeneous-agent model with en-dogenous migration and wealth accumulation, linking spatial and macroeconomicapproaches. After an increase in carbon taxes, we quantify that rural householdsface 20% higher welfare losses than urban households. In an optimal revenue-recycling exercise, we compare transfers targeting income and geography, andshow that neglecting for geography reduces welfare gains by 7%. We concludethat carbon policies should account for spatial differences to improve politicalfeasibility.JEL classification – C61, E62, H23, Q43, Q58, R13.Keywords – Carbon tax, inequalities, revenue recycling, spatial and macroeco-nomic models, migration.ECB Working Paper Series No 31041Non-technical summaryCarbon taxes on households and firms are a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emis-sions. However, their costs are unevenly distributed across the population. Rural andlower-income households face disproportionately higher costs because they spend moreon fossil fuels and have fewer low-carbon alternatives, such as public transport or cleanerheating options. Moreover, rural residents are more likely to work in carbon-intensivesectors (such as agriculture, transport or manufacturing), that are more exposed tocarbon pricing. These geographic inequalities can undermine public support for cli-mate policies, as demonstrated by France’s Yellow Vest protests. Understanding andaddressing these distributional effects is crucial as Europe prepares to implement itsnew carbon market for buildings and transport (EU-ETS 2) in 2027.Using comprehensive French household and firm data, we document that ruralhouseholds spend 2.7 times more on fossil fuels than urban households, even afteraccounting for income differences. Rural workers are also employed by firms that emitthree times more greenhouse gases per employee. We integrate these empirical patternsinto an economic model that captures household heterogeneity and allows for migrationbetween regions with different housing and labor market conditions.Our analysis reveals substantial geographic disparities in carbon pricing impacts. Auniform carbon tax of e100 per ton of CO would reduce national emissions by 15% butimpose costs averaging e600 per