美联储-劳动力市场动态、货币政策权衡和追求最大就业的短缺方法（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and aShortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum EmploymentBrent Bundick, Isabel Cair´o, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau2025-068Please cite this paper as:Bundick, Brent, Isabel Cair´o, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (2025). “Labor Market Dynam-ics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employ-ment,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-068. Washington: Board of Governorsof the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.068.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Page 1 of 20 Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications. Abstract: This paper reviews recent academic studies to assess the implications of adopting a shortfalls, rather than a deviations, approach to pursuing maximum employment. Model-based simulations from these studies suggest three main findings. First, shortfalls rules generate inflationary pressure relative to deviations rules, which offsets downward pressure on inflation stemming from the presence of the effective lower bound. Second, since monetary policy leans against these inflationary pressures, a shortfalls rule implies a limited effect on average outcomes in the labor market. Finally, studies suggest that monetary policy can offset higher-than-desired average inflation under a shortfalls rule by leaning more strongly against deviations of inflation from the 2 percent objective, thereby keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. JEL Classification: E32, E52, E58. Keywords: Asymmetric monetary policy strategies, maximum employment, effective lower bound. Note: Authors’ affiliations are Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Bundick), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Cairó), and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (Petrosky-Nadeau), respectively. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone else affiliated with the Federal Reserve System. The authors benefited from the comments and suggestions of Bruce Fallick, Benjamin Johannsen, Mi