我国30省“十五五”可再生能源装机目标提升潜力分析

2025 年 9 月工作论文我国 30 省“十五五”可再生能源装机目标提升潜力分析关于绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）绿色创新发展研究院 (Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, iGDP)，2014 年成立于北京，是专注绿色低碳发展的公益性国际化智库。iGDP 自成立以来，根植我国绿色低碳实践，面向全球应对气候变化进程，服务决策者、实践者、投资者， 通过跨学科、系统性、实证性的研究，推动能源和气候变化解决方案的科学化和精细化，与多方合作推动绿色低碳议题的多元化和国际化的沟通，提供有国际视野和前瞻思考的解决方案及公共知识产品，为全球可持续发展做出贡献。报告编写团队绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）：李鑫迪、刘晶宁致 谢报告作者衷心感谢北京大学能源研究院气候变化与能源转型项目对本研究的支持与指导。作者对博众智合（Agora）能源转型论坛中国电力项目主任尹明博士对报告的宝贵建议表示诚挚谢意。同时，衷心感谢能源创新政策和技术有限责任公司（EI）团队对绿色创新发展研究院 EPS 模型工作的长期技术与研究支持。最后，特别感谢研究和报告编写过程中，绿色创新发展研究院同事胡敏提出的宝贵建议，模型团队杨鹂、袁雅婷、宋曼娇在报告编写过程中提供的支持与帮助，以及同事包林洁对报告的精美排版，以及传播同事吕雅宁对报告的传播支持。免责声明本报告编写所采用的数据均来自公开的信息和渠道，我们力求准确和完整，但难免偶有疏漏。报告基于初步成果撰写，用于讨论和交流，内容会随下一阶段研究成果进行修正、更新或增减。本报告仅属于作者的研究成果，不代表所在机构、咨询专家的立场和观点。引用建议李鑫迪 , 刘晶宁 (2025). 我国 30 省“十五五”可再生能源装机目标提升潜力分析 . 工作论文 . 北京：绿色创新发展研究院联系方式绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）：igdpoffice@igdp.cn 目 录摘 要 ······································································· i第一章 研究背景 ······························································ 11.1 我国可再生能源发展趋势 ······························································ 21.2 国家及地方可再生支持政策体系 ························································ 41.2.1 政策目标及情景预测综述 ···························································· 41.2.1.1 模型预测综述（全国） ·························································· 41.2.1.2 模型预测综述（省级地区） ······················································ 61.2.2 我国可再生能源发展支持政策体系 ···················································· 61.2.2.1 电力市场建设情况 ······························································ 81.2.2.2 可再生能源参与电力市场情况 ···················································· 91.2.2.3 绿证绿电交易 ·································································· 10第二章 各省可再生能源装机目标及完成进展 ····································· 112.1 “十四五”新增可再生装机目标及完成情况 ················································ 122.2 2030 年可再生目标及进展 ···························································· 15第三章 各省可再生发展目标提升潜力量化分析 ··································· 163.1 30 省 EPS 基础模型方法学和情景设置 ·················································· 173.1.1 EPS 模型简介 ····································································· 173.1.1.1 EPS 电力模块 ·································································· 183.1.2 情景设置·········································································· 193.1.3 主要电力部门假设 ·································································· 223.1.3.1 可再生最大潜力假设 ···························································· 223.1.3.2 调入调出电 ···································································· 233.1.3.3 历史年份新增装机 ······························································ 233.2 基于 30 省 EPS 基础模型的可再生装机预测 ·············································· 243.2.1 用电需求预测 ······································································ 243.2.2 可再生装机增长预测 ································································ 253.2.2.1 可再生装机预测 ································································ 253.2.2.2 风光装机预测 ·····················