兰德-商业化新时代的美国太空政策制定-从发射到月球运行（英）

U.S. Space Policymaking in a New Era of CommercializationFrom Launch to Lunar OperationsTHERESE MARIE JONESThis document was submitted as a dissertation in May 2025 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Frederick S. Pardee Ph.D. in Policy Analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Dave Baiocchi (chair), Krista Langeland, and Marissa Herron. This dissertation was supported by Rothenberg and Wilson dissertation awards.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RGSDA4235-1.About the RAND School of Public PolicyThe RAND School of Public Policy has specialized in graduate-level policy education since its founding in 1970. The RAND School is home to the Frederick S. Pardee Ph.D. in Policy Analysis, which is the original public policy Ph.D. program in the United States and the only Ph.D. program based at an independent public policy research organization. To learn more about the RAND School of Public Policy, visit www.rand.edu.Published in 2025 by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. is a registered trademark. ii Abstract Over the last decade, the U.S. space industry has seen rapid commercialization and an emphasis for the U.S. government to "buy what you can, build what you must". Since 2015, one new launch provider has nearly taken over the U.S. market from the previous monopoly of United Launch Alliance and has disrupted traditional geostationary satellite communications with low-latency broadband from Low Earth Orbit, three U.S. commercial companies have launched commercial astronauts into space, and two U.S. commercial companies have landed, one successfully and one partially successfully, on the Moon. As the government seeks to enable new commercial space capabilities, new oversight functions will be needed to monitor safety, security, and economic stability of these services. This dissertation is split into three parts: The first paper in this dissertation utilizes a historical comparative analysis to study twenty different measures of organizational culture throughout the history of U.S. aviation regulation, from the founding of the Aeronautics Branch to present. It explores the efficacy of the FAA and its predecessors in creating a safety culture, and makes recommendations for the creation of a new commercial human spaceflight aviation regulatory regime in FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation upon the expiration of the current “learning period”. The second paper utilizes case studies of historical critical infrastructure monopolies and vertical integration in resource, transportation, utility, information technology, and defense sectors, and their impacts on pricing and innovation, and examines the increasing role of SpaceX across the space supply chain in this context. It makes recommendations regarding the monitoring of economic indicators, ensuring