IMF-驾驭塞尔维亚的经济未来：生产力的关键作用（英）

Navigating Serbia’s Economic Future: The Crucial Role of Productivity Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen SIP/2025/111IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 17, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/177. 2025 AUG © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/111 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Navigating Serbia’s Economic Future: The Crucial Role of Productivity Prepared by Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen Authorized for distribution by Annette Kyobe August 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 17, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/177. ABSTRACT: Serbia has grown at a rate comparable to peers over recent decades, but the income gap with the EU, albeit narrowing, remains large. As contributions from labor and capital to potential growth are expected to decline, Serbia needs to accelerate structural reforms to boost total factor productivity (TFP). Successful implementation of structural reforms could yield substantial benefits. Key policy options include those that strengthen governance, reduce state influence in the economy, address skill mismatches, enhance assess to finance among firms, and promote research and development (R&D) and innovation. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Nguyen, Anh Thi Ngoc, (2025), “Navigating Serbia's Economic Future: The Crucial Role of Productivity,” IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/111, International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: D24, E24, J24, O47 Keywords: Serbia, productivity, potential output, structural reforms, governance, business environment, product market reforms, innovation, human capital, structural policy gaps Author’s E-Mail Address: ANguyen4@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Navigating Serbia’s Economic Future: The Crucial Role of Productivity Republic of Serbia Prepared by Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen1 1 The author would like to thank Annette Kyobe, Andre Geis, Larry Qiang Cui, Lev Ratnovski, Marko Paunovic, and Desanka Obradovic for their helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. REPUBLIC OF SERBIA 4 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NAVIGATING SERBIA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE: THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF PRODUCTIVITYSerbia has grown at a rate comparable to peers over recent decades, but the income gap with the EU, albeit narrowing, remains large. As contributions from labor and capital to potential growth are expected to decline, Serbia needs to accelerate structural reforms to boost total factor productivity (TFP). Successful implementation of structural reforms could yield substantial b