IMF-圣多美和普林西比民主共和国：若干问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/229 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE SELECTED ISSUES This paper on the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 16, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. August 2025 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE SELECTED ISSUES Approved By the African Department Prepared by Sneha Agrawal, Julia Bersch, Elsa de Brito, Hector Carcel-Villanova, Alsis Cruz, Bahrom Shukurov, Azar Sultanov, Dilson Tiny, and Ke Wang STRENGTHENING INFLATION FORECASTING IN SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE ____3 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________ 3 B. Inflation Structure and Recent Developments _____________________________________ 4 C. Methodology and Data __________________________________________________________ 11 D. Results from Model Estimation __________________________________________________ 12 E. Model Evaluation and Forecasting Inflation ______________________________________ 14 F. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations ________________________________________ 15 FIGURES 1. Inflation Developments ___________________________________________________________ 6 2. REER and NEER ____________________________________________________________________ 9 3. Pseudo Out of Sample Forecast–End-of-Period Inflation (2003–29) ______________ 15 TABLES 1. Model Results ____________________________________________________________________ 13 2. Model Residual Evaluation _______________________________________________________ 14 3. Multicollinearity Evaluation _______________________________________________________ 14 BOXES 1. Estimating the VAT Impact on Inflation ___________________________________________ 7 2. Empirical Assessment of the NEER Passthrough on Inflation in Island Microstates_ _________________________________________________________________ 10 CONTENTS July 16, 2025 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND References _______________________________________________________________________________________ 17 STRENGTHENING MONETARY POLICY AND LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT IN SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE _______________________________________________________________________________________ 18 A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________________ 18B. Overview of the Banking Sector of São Tomé and Príncipe ____________________________________ 19C. The Current Monetary Pol