IMF-中国产业政策：量化及其对错配的影响（英）

Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and Yifan Tao WP/25/155 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG * This paper benefited from the guidance of Thomas Helbling, Sonali Jain-Chandra, and Krishna Srinivasan, as well as commentsfrom Yonqquan Cao, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Benjamin Kett, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Lorenzo Rotunno, Robert Zymek,Aleksandra Zdzienicka, and various participants at IMF seminars, and a seminar with the Chinese authorities.. Diego Cerdeiro, Reka Juhasz, Nathan Lane, Emily Oehlsen, and Verónica C. Pérez kindly shared their datasets. Ding Hua and Tommy Lee provided research assistance. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/155IMF Working Paper Asia and the Pacific Department Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation Prepared by Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and Yifan Tao* Authorized for distribution by Sonali Jain-Chandra August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper quantifies the size of the main industrial policy instruments in China and estimates their impact on domestic factor misallocation and aggregate productivity. The quantification of industrial policy instruments leverages data from financial reports of listed firms and the land registry. The equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy through cash subsidies, tax benefits, subsidized credit, and subsidized land for favored sectors (including both private and state-owned firms) is estimated at about 4 percent of GDP per year, with a growing share of tax benefits over time. Next, the paper uses a structural model to estimate the relationship between industrial policies and factor misallocation for a broad sample of firms. Various industrial policy instruments are found to affect factor allocations in different ways—subsidies tend to lead to excess production, while trade and regulatory barriers limit production. Overall, factor misallocation from industrial policies is estimated to reduce domestic aggregate TFP by about 1.2 percent. The results resonate with IMF policy recommendations for China to scale back industrial policy and increase its transparency. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Garcia-Macia, Daniel, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and Yifan Tao. 2025. “Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation”, International Monetary Fund Working Paper No. 2025/155. JEL Classification Numbe