英国国家经济和社会研究所-2025年夏季英国国家研究院经济展望（英）

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Summer 2025Series A. No. 19National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2025 ISSN 2753-9350 © National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2025 National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench St London SW1P 3HE T: +44 (0)20 7222 7665 E: enquiries@niesr.ac.uk W: niesr.ac.uk Registered charity no. 306083 NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH OFFICERS OF THE INSTITUTEPRESIDENTSIR PAUL TUCKERCOUNCIL OF MANAGEMENTSIR PHILIP RUTNAM (CHAIR)Kofi Adjepong-Boateng CBEAlex BakerJenny BatesProfessor Philip BrownPeter C. OppenheimerProfessor Ricardo ReisAmanda Rowlatt CBE Professor Jill RuberyAlison StraszewskiSir Keith SkeochRomesh Vaitilingam MBEKeith WadeDIRECTOR DAVID AIKMAN2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HEThe National Institute of Economic and Social Research is an independent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives, and the ways in which policy can bring about change. And this remains central to NIESR’s ethos. We continue to apply our expertise in both quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issues to current debates and to influence policy. The Institute is independent of all party political interests.ContentsForeword 3National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2025 4Key Messages 41. The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom 6Economic Background and Forecast Summary 6Box A: New Evidence on Nowcasting Monthly UK GDP 10Economic Policy 17Fiscal Policy 17Monetary Policy 21The Outlook in Detail 24Demand and Output 24Supply and Costs 30Risks to the Forecast 35References 37Box B: Housing Divides – Cultural Diversity, Property Values, and the Uneven Geography of Opportunity in Northern Ireland 39Box C: Human Capital and Stagnating Productivity in the United Kingdom 432. Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions 49The Need for Narrative and More Ambitious Policy 49UK Distributional Analysis 49UK Regional and Sectoral Analysis 51Transport 52Box D: Understanding Productivity Variations across the United Kingdom 58Policy Options for the Autumn Budget 63Spending Cuts versus Investing in Work 63Raising Tax on Workers or on Capital 64Regenerating the Regions 64Conclusion 65References 66Forecast Tables 68National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2025 National Institute of Economic and Social Research 3ForewordThe Chancellor’s TrilemmaThe UK economy enters the second half of 2025 still confronting weak growth and stubborn inflationary pressures. While external factors – including continued trade policy uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risks – certainly matter, domestic challenges dominate the outlook. Chief among these is the Government’s increasingly acute fiscal predicament. Simply put, the Chancellor cannot simultaneously meet her fisca