IMF-改革后平行市场溢价的潜在驱动因素：埃塞俄比亚联邦民主共和国（英）

Potential Drivers of Post-Reform Parallel Market Premium Federal Democratic Republic of EthiopiaBryan Gurhy, Kyungsuk Lee, and Sandhya Rajyam Garimella SIP/2025/105IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 2025/189. 2025 JUL © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/105 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Potential Drivers of Post-Reform Parallel Market Premium, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Prepared by Bryan Gurhy, Kyungsuk Lee, and Sandhya Rajyam Garimella Authorized for distribution by Annalisa Fedelino July 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 2025/189. ABSTRACT: A comparative analysis of Ethiopia with Angola, Egypt, and Nigeria highlights three structural factors that may be sustaining the parallel market premium despite exchange rate unification: (i) some remaining current account restrictions, including a 2.5 percent commission payable to National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) on foreign exchange (FX) sales; (ii) a tightly closed capital and financial account coupled with low returns on Birr denominated assets; and (iii) an underdeveloped financial market, lacking hedging instruments and dominated by a single bank, which weakens competition and reduces market efficiency. While each case has its own distinctive features, Ethiopia’s conditions most closely resemble those of Angola during its transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime, where a significant parallel market premium persisted. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Bryan Gurhy, Kyungsuk Lee and Sandhya Rajyam Garimella (2025). “Potential Drivers of Post-Reform Parallel Market Premium” IMF Selected Issues Paper No.2025/105; Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund JEL Classification Numbers: E31, E50, E63 and F31, F32 Keywords: Ethiopia; Exchange rates; Exchange rate unification; Parallel market premium. Author’s E-Mail Address: bgurhy@imf.org, klee3@imf.org, sgarimella@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPER Potential Drivers of Post-Reform Parallel Market Premium Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Prepared by Bryan Gurhy, Kyungsuk Lee and Sandhya Rajyam Garimella THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By AFR Department Prepared by Bryan Gurhy (MCM), Kyungsuk Lee, and Sandhya Rajyam Garimella (both AFR). POTENTIAL DRIVERS OF POST-REFORM PARALLEL MARKET PREMIUM _____________ 2 A. Background ___________________________________________________________________________ 2B. Comparative Analysis of Structural Features: Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria ____ 3C.