IMF-在埃塞俄比亚建立货币传导机制（英）

Building Monetary Transmission in Ethiopia Deirdre Daly, Bryan Gurhy SIP/2025/106IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 2025/189. 2025 JUL © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/106 IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Building Monetary Transmission in Ethiopia Prepared by Deirdre Daly and Bryan Gurhy Authorized for distribution by Annalisa Fedelino July 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/189. ABSTRACT: This Selected Issues Paper reviews Ethiopia’s transition to an interest-rate based monetary framework. For this framework to be effective, monetary transmission—the process through which policy rate changes affect inflation and economic activity—must function reliably. Achieving this, requires a clear, well-communicated policy framework, strong analytical capacity, and continued efforts to address structural features that may hamper transmission. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Daly, D. and Gurhy, B. (2025). “Building Monetary Transmission in Ethiopia,” IMF Selected Issues Paper No. 2025/106; Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund JEL Classification Numbers: E52, E58 Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, monetary policy frameworks, monetary policy effectiveness, interest-rate based monetary policy. Author’s E-Mail Address: ddaly@imf.org; bgurhy@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Building Monetary Transmission in Ethiopia Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Prepared by Deirdre Daly and Bryan Gurhy THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAfrican Department Prepared by Deirdre Daly (AFR) and Bryan Gurhy (MCM). BUILDING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN ETHIOPIA ________________________ 2 FIGURES 1. Inflation versus Sub-Saharan African Peers, June 2016–February 2025 _________________ 22. Monetary Aggregates __________________________________________________________________ 33. Interest Rates __________________________________________________________________________ 64. Supply Shocks __________________________________________________________________________ 85. Financial Sector _______________________________________________________________________ 10TABLES1. Foundations for Interest-Rate Based Monetary Policy Framework _____________________ 42. Lessons from Peer-Country Experience in Strengthening Monetary Transmission _____ 113. Transition to Interest-Rate Based Monetary Policy Framework Country Examples _____ 13References _______________________________________________________________________________ 14CONTENTS June