欧洲央行-超越平均值：欧元区HANK模型中货币政策的异质性效应（英）

Working Paper Series Beyond averages: heterogeneous effects of monetary policy in a HANK model for the euro area Hanno Kase, Rodolfo Dinis Rigato Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3086 AbstractWe introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian modelfor forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this typeof models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternativescenario for monetary policy during the early 2020s inflationary episode, showing that ear-lier hikes in interest rates would have affected more strongly households at the lower endof the wealth distribution, whose consumption our model suggests was already depressedrelative to the rest of the population. To provide intuition for this result, we introduce anew decomposition of the effects of monetary policy on consumption across the wealth dis-tribution. Second, we show that introducing heterogeneous households does not come atthe cost of forecasting accuracy by comparing the performance of our model to its exactrepresentative-agent counterpart and demonstrating nearly identical results in predictingkey aggregate variables.JEL classification codes: D31, E12, E21, E52Keywords: Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian Models, Monetary Policy, Inequality,ForecastingECB Working Paper Series No 30861Non-Technical SummaryIn this paper, we introduce a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model for policyanalysis in the Euro Area and explore the usefulness and applications of these models in cen-tral banks. Traditional economic models often assume that all households are alike, potentiallyoverlooking the varied impacts of policy decisions on different segments of the population.HANK models, which have become a cornerstone of contemporary macroeconomic analysis,allow us to account for the diverse financial situations of households, such as differences inwealth and income, thereby providing a more nuanced understanding of policy impacts. Ourprimary motivation is to equip central banks, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), withclearer insights into how these models can be utilized, both by changing the transmission chan-nels of monetary policy, as well as by providing a framework to understanding its effects acrossthe wealth and income distributions.The main findings of our research are as follows: First, we explore a hypothetical scenarioduring the early 2020s inflationary period, finding that earlier interest rate hikes would havedisproportionately impacted lower-income households, whose consumption had not recov-ered as quickly after the pandemic compared to other wealth groups. To better explain the dif-ferences in how monetary policy affects households across the wealth spectrum, we propose anew decompositoin of the effects of monetary