兰德-北冰洋中部海洋存在的未来（英）

STEPHANIE PEZARD, SCOTT R. STEPHENSON, ERIC COOPER, KATHERINE ANANIA, ZACHARY BARRY, KRISTEN GUNNESS, BRIAN SATTLERThe Future of Maritime Presence in the Central Arctic OceanResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA3323-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A3323-1iii About This Report In this report, we explore how global actors may leverage new maritime access in the Central Arctic Ocean for economic, political, and military purposes. We examine current and potential future maritime use of the ocean by Arctic states and global actors. We then present a scenario in four phases of how the ocean and these maritime activities could develop over time. The research reported here was completed in April 2025 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. RAND National Security Research Division This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Divisi