欧洲央行-超越短期：货币政策与创新投资（英）

Working Paper Series Beyond the short run: monetary policy and innovation investment Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmöller, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Tobias Schmidt Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3080 Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP) This paper contains research conducted within the network “Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network” (ChaMP). It consists of economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). ChaMP is coordinated by a team chaired by Philipp Hartmann (ECB), and consisting of Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal), Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia), Emmanuel Dhyne (Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique) and Maria T. Valderrama (Oesterreichische Nationalbank), who are supported by Melina Papoutsi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (both ECB), 7 central bank advisers and 8 academic consultants. ChaMP seeks to revisit our knowledge of monetary transmission channels in the euro area in the context of unprecedented shocks, multiple ongoing structural changes and the extension of the monetary policy toolkit over the last decade and a half as well as the recent steep inflation wave and its reversal. More information is provided on its website. ECB Working Paper Series No 30801AbstractThis paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy oninnovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the effect ofa large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over themedium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the sur-vey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes.Responses to hikes and cuts are significant and largely symmetric at the baseline rate(4.5%), though we detect potential state-dependent asymmetry due to the extensivemargin. The financing channel emerges as one of the transmission channels, with morepronounced effects in firms with higher shares of bank loans and variable-rate loans.Crucially, we show that monetary policy transmits via aggregate demand, with strongerresponses in firms with pessimistic demand expectations. Forward guidance providessubstantial additional stimulus by reducing uncertainty about future rates, suggest-ing long-term, supply-side effects of announcements. These results challenge monetarylong-run neutrality and are suggestive of policy endogeneity of R∗ operating throughinnovation-driven technology growth.JEL classification: E52, E22, E24, 030, D22.Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission, R&D, Endogenous Growth, Forward Guid-ance, R∗.ECB Working Paper Series No 30802Non-technic