世界银行-越南崛起：通往高收入未来的道路（英）

VIET NAM RISINGPathways to a High-Income FuturePublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized2VIET NAM RISINGPathways to a High-Income Future©2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of Executive Directors. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of the World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit ©shutterstock.comCONTENTSABBREVIATIONS iACKNOWLEDGMENTS ivOVERVIEW 1Viet Nam’s high-income ambitions require accelerating growth beyond its strong historical performance 2To achieve high-income status, Viet Nam needs to revive the drivers of growth 3Falling investment rates need to be reversed 4Rapid aging will increase the non-working age population share while increasing care responsibilities for the working-age population, particularly women 5Greater productivity will be central to higher growth, driven in large part by higher skills 7Institutions need to be modernized to better support economic growth 10Viet Nam must also effectively respond to a fast-changing global context 11This report proposes a comprehensive reform agenda of five connected policy packages: 13A) Policy package 1: Supporting Private Sector Development 15B) Policy package 2: Investing in Resilient Infrastructure 19C) Policy package 3: Increasing Skills, Participation and Resilience 21D) Policy package 4: Ensuring Everyone Gains from the HIC Transition 24E) Policy package 5: Modernizing Institutions 27INTRODUCTION 33Chapter 1: Ever Soaring Ambitions: From Đổi Mới to a New Era of National Rise 331.1. Four decades of extraordinary progress since Đổi Mới 331.2. New development ambitions and the challenge of reaching high-income by 2045 341.3. Growing in a changing context: global and domestic megatrends 381.4. The framework 401.5. Taking stock 421.5.1. Evolution of growth drivers 421.5.2. Progress in implementing reforms 491.6. The Report 51PART 1: PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS 54Chapter 2: GVC Upgrading and Private Sector Development 552.1. Backward analysis: Past achievements and emerging c