世界银行-阿拉伯埃及共和国国家方案评估，2015-25财政年度（方法文件）（英）

1 Approach Paper The Arab Republic of Egypt Country Program Evaluation, Fiscal Years 2015–25 June 9, 2025 1. Evaluation Purpose and Audience 1.1 The Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of the World Bank Group’s support to the Arab Republic of Egypt from FY 2015 to FY25. The evaluation will focus on the relevance, coherence, and impact of the Bank Group’s contribution to Egypt’s key long-term development challenges over the period of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) from FY15 to FY22 and part of the ongoing FY23–27 CPF. The evaluation seeks to identify lessons to inform future Bank Group engagement in support of Egypt’s development priorities, including the next CPF, which is due to commence in FY28. The primary audience for the evaluation includes the Bank Group’s Boards of Executive Directors, Bank Group management and staff working on Egypt, the government of Egypt, and a broad set of in-country stakeholders. Its findings and lessons may be relevant to other middle-income countries in the Middle East and North Africa and other Regions. 1.2 The CPE will evaluate three main areas of the Bank Group engagement, selected based on country diagnostics and analytics; a preliminary review of the portfolios of the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA); and early discussions with the Bank Group country team in Egypt. The evaluation areas are private sector–led job growth, household resilience, and energy transition. These areas are critical to achieving the government of Egypt’s objectives of sustainable, equitable, and socially inclusive growth as outlined in Egypt Vision 2030. 2. Country Context, Development Challenges, and Government Vision Country Context 2.1 Egypt’s strategic location and ownership of the Suez Canal gives it an advantage in terms of logistics, market access, and revenues, but it also exposes it to Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized2 regional conflicts.1 Two critical sources of revenues—tourism (8 percent of GDP in 2024) and the Suez Canal (2 percent of GDP in 2024)—have seen large volatility because of tensions in Libya and Sudan and the conflict in West Bank and Gaza and have not yet recovered to the prepandemic levels. The country has significant endowments of oil, natural gas, gold, and iron ore and exports both oil and gas. It became a net energy importer for the first time in 2009 as domestic consumption growth outpaced production. 2.2 Egypt’s GDP growth and per capita GDP growth have been volatile throughout the past decade and lagged middle-income country averages. During 2014–23, real GDP growth averaged 4.3 percent and real per capita GDP growth 2.3 percent, compared with 4.4 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, in middle-income countries. Growth has been driven by large-scale infrastructure projects (for example, the new administrative c