世界银行-挤出市场与银行业危机（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11145Crowding Out and Banking CrisesPablo Hernando-KaminskyInternational Finance CorporationJune 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11145This paper studies the effect of government issuance on firm issuance during banking crises using transaction-level bond and loan data from 66 countries between 1991 and 2017. Governments rarely issue loans, preferring to issue in bond markets. In contrast, firms receive most of their financing from banks. During banking crises, as the supply of domestic loans decreases, firms switch to issuing bonds in domestic markets. The paper uses a novel instrument based on maturing debt to overcome the potential endogeneity of government issuance. The findings show that firms must compete with the government for funds in the domestic bond market and are crowded out from this market as a result. This happens not only in developing countries, but in advanced countries as well. The paper also shows that firms with the ability to tap international debt markets switch to these markets when crowding out occurs in domestic bond markets. Lastly, the paper shows that more developed domestic bond markets mitigate, but do not eliminate, the degree to which crowding out occurs.This paper is a product of the International Finance Corporation. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank Group to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at pablohk@ifc.org. Crowding Out and Banking Crises∗Pablo Hernando-Kaminsky†Latest version: Click hereKeywords: crowding out, banking crises, debt market switching, development of debt marketsJEL Classifications: E44, E51, F30, F32, F34, G01, G10, G30, H63∗I am grateful to Carlos Vegh and Alessandro Rebucci for their guidance and ongoing support. I also thankTomas Williams, Andreea Rot˘arescu, Graciela Kaminsky, Laurence Ball, Michele Dathan, and No´emie Pinardon-Touati for their insightful comments, as well as participants in the JHU macroeconomics and I