联合国西亚经济社会委员会-2024年黎巴嫩战争：社会经济影响分析（英）

Lebanon War 2024Socioeconomic impact analysis© UNICEF/UNI655532/al Mussawir - Ramzi HaidarKey messagesThe 2024 war came after six years of economic and social crises, compounded by decades of structural political, security and governance challenges.The war inflicted massive destruction on Lebanon, with the number of Israeli airstrikes from October to November 2024 ranking among the highest number of attacks globally in the 21st century.Private sector employment fell by 25 per cent, and around 29 per cent of war-affected businesses no longer have any employees.Around 15 per cent of surveyed businesses shut down permanently, while 21 per cent suspended operations temporarily. In the areas most impacted by the war, 24 per cent remain closed after the ceasefire.2Around 500,000 students faced severe educational interruptions; during the war, 69 per cent of children were out of school until the ceasefire.Child nutrition reached critical levels, particularly in the Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa governorates, where over 51 per cent and 45 per cent of under-2-year-olds, respectively, experienced severe food poverty. The Human Development Index rank of Lebanon regressed to 2010 levels, marking a 14-year setback due to the overlapping crises.The 2030 gross domestic product of Lebanon is projected at $46.9 billion should the necessary reforms be implemented, but even then, it will be 8.4 per cent below its pre-crisis 2017 peak ($51.2 billion).Sustainable recovery requires prioritizing key enablers, fostering healthy economic growth, strengthening social protection, and reforming the financial sector. Trust in institutions must be restored through better governance, service delivery and infrastructure access.© UNICEF/UNI655537/al Mussawir - Ramzi Haidar3ContextThe outbreak of the war on Gaza on 7 October 2023 immediately triggered conflict around the southern border of Lebanon which had significant impact on the country, particularly on the southern areas. In September 2024, Israeli military operations escalated, expanding across Lebanon. This came amid a multifaceted crisis that Lebanon has struggled with for the preceding six years.. 1 Conflict synopsis: attacks and unexploded ordnance contaminationThe Lebanon war, which began on 8 October 2023 can be divided into three phases. The first phase was a controlled war between 8 October 2023 and 22 September 2024. Hostilities were limited to daily skirmishes and the exchange of fire, mostly along the southern Lebanese border. The second phase between 23 September 2024 and 27 November 2024 was an escalation of the war. Israel launched a full-scale military operation, which expanded geographically to target broader areas across Lebanon. This phase also included a ground invasion that began on 1 October 2024. The third phase, post 27 November 2024 was the ceasefire, which remains in place despite numerous violations.The frequency of attacks in October and November 2024 was the highest across the three phases. During th