世界银行-越南宏观监测，2025年5月（英）

1 VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING May 2025 WHAT’ NEW? • High-frequency indicators show resilient economic activities in May, driven by export-oriented sectors such as textiles and electronics. While recovering from 45.6 in April to 49.8 in May, the PMI remained in contractionary territory amid heightened global uncertainty. • Exports continued to register robust growth, driven in part by front loading of high-tech exports. Total exports to the US in the first five months of 2025 increased to US$57.2 billion (+ 27.5 percent y/y). • Retail sales indicate continued growth of domestic consumption, driven by robust services spending. Retail service sales growth accelerated by 17.8 percent y/y, supported by firming labor income, along with the increasing number of international visitors to Viet Nam. • FDI disbursements remained resilient despite global uncertainty, registering +7.9 percent y/y growth as end of May, similar to the same period of 2024. • CPI increased from 3.2 percent in May 2025 from 3.1 percent in April, partly due to a 4.8 percent increase in electricity tariffs. • Credit growth increased to 17.5 percent y/y in May 2025, driven by credit to real estate developers. Banks increased bond issuance to strengthen their medium and long-term capital structures (VND 84.5 trillion in bonds during the first five months of 2025, about 2.5 times more than in the same period last year). • The disbursement of public investment improved significantly in May, rising to 24.1 percent of Prime Minister’s plan, compared to 21.6 percent in the same period of 2024. TO WATCH • Viet Nam and the US had a third round of trade negotiations during the week of June 9th. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, significant progress was made in all areas of negotiations; however, an agreement is yet to be reached. The current pause on the 46% reciprocal tariffs is set to expire early July, while another round of negotiations has been announced. • Inflationary pressures are building from rising housing costs driven by an increase in electricity price. Viet Nam Monthly Macro Monitoring Dashboard May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Industrial Production (y/y) 10.0% 12.4% 11.1% 8.4% 10.8% 7.0% 8.0% 8.8% -1.0% 17.6% 9.9% 9.6% 9.4% Manufacturing PMI 50.3 54.7 54.7 52.4 47.3 51.2 50.8 49.8 48.9 49.2 50.5 45.6 49.8 Retail sales (y/y) 9.5% 9.1% 9.4% 7.9% 7.6% 7.1% 8.8% 9.3% 9.5% 9.4% 10.8% 11.1% 9.7% Merchandise exports (y/y) 17.5% 13.2% 20.2% 15.2% 10.8% 10.2% 8.2% 12.8% -4.0% 25.7% 14.5% 19.8% 18.9% Merchandise imports (y/y) 29.9% 14.4% 25.0% 14.7% 11.1% 13.6% 9.8% 19.2% -2.6% 40.0% 19.0% 22.9% 15.5% CPI (y/y) 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% Core inflation (y/y) 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% Ex. rate (VND/USD, y/y) 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% FDI disbursement (YTD, y/y) 7.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8.0% 8.9% 8.8% 7.1%