Barclays_Global_Macro_Thoughts_A_pivotal_week

Restricted - ExternalSIGNATURE28 July 2025Global Macro ThoughtsA pivotal weekAjay Rajadhyaksha+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, USMax Kitson +44 (0) 20 3555 2386 max.kitson@barclays.com Barclays, UK Pratham Hukmat Kingar +91 (0) 22 6175 2018prathamhukmat.kingar@barclays.comBarclays, UK Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including important disclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8.This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Please see analyst certification(s) and important disclosures at the end of this presentation.FICC ResearchGlobal MacroRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 28-Jul-25, 11:13 GMTReleased: 28-Jul-25, 11:18 GMTRestricted - ExternalThe world at a glance•An event-heavy week should set the tone for August •No big policy surprises, either from Treasury or the Fed •We expect sub-100k in payrolls in this week’s print•On tariffs: a trade deal for Japan, followed by a deal for the EU •In China: the ‘anti-involution’ push, and several other recent boosts to risk sentiment •Making sense of it all28 July 20252Restricted - ExternalNo big policy surprises from Treasury – or the Fed28 July 20253•We do not expect markets to be surprised by this week’s QRA announcement 1oTreasury should forecast Q3/Q4 private net borrowing needs of $825-850bn each quarteroOur estimate assumes a cash balance of $750bn by Q3 and $850bn by Q4 (from $500bn in July)•We do not expect coupon auction sizes to change, and certainly no reduction 1oTreasury will commit to holding coupon sizes unchanged for several quarters; we see a jump only in 2027oWe expect scaled-up buybacks, with quarterly maximum amounts rising from $30bn to $48bnoThe TBAC minutes could focus on T-bill demand from stablecoins, letting bill share of issuance rise•There shouldn’t be Fed surprises either, with the fed funds rate unchanged yet again 2oChair Powell will likely emphasise that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest ratesoThe Fed will likely not sharpen its September guidance, especially given July payrolls will not yet be available on Wednesday•Waller and Bowman might dissent; if so, markets are unlikely to be surprised 2oBoth have called for imminent rate cuts; Waller is arguably auditioning for Fed chairoThe vast majority of the FOMC is between zero to two cuts in 2025; we don’t see that changing 1 Global Rates Weekly: Seesaw (24 July 2025)2 Global Economics Weekly: High stakes, big deals (25 July 2025)Restricted - ExternalFOMC and payrolls are