韩国央行-近期经济发展（2025年7月）（英）

PRESS RELEASEJuly 10, 2025Research Department & Office of Economic Modeling and Policy AnalysisRecent Economic DevelopmentsSummary▣ The slowdown in Korea’s economic growth has eased to some extent, as consumption improved and exports increased, despite the continued decline in construction investment. ￭ Uncertainty surrounding the growth path remains at a high level, particularly with respect to trade negotiations with the United States.▣ CPI inflation is expected to hover around 2% reflecting the stabilization of global oil prices and the government’s price measures. ￭ Looking ahead, the inflation trajectory is likely to be influenced by domestic and global economic conditions, as well as movements in exchange rates and oil prices.< Contacts > Macro Forecasting & Research TeamMinji GoUiJung Kim+82-2-759-4166 (mjgo@bok.or.kr)+82-2-759-4172 (kej2812@bok.or.kr)Recent Economic DevelopmentsJuly 2025Ⅰ.Ⅰ.Ⅰ. GlobalGlobalGlobal EconomicEconomicEconomic ConditionsConditionsConditions ................................ 111Ⅱ.Ⅱ.Ⅱ. Developments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s Economy........................ 222 <Appendix> Key Economic Indicators- 1 - The slowdown in Korea’s economic growth has eased to some extent, as consumption improved and exports increased, despite the continued decline in construction investment. CPI inflation is expected to hover around 2% reflecting the stabilization of global oil prices and the government’s price measures. The forecast path is subject to considerable external uncertainty, particularly regarding the future developments in trade negotiations.Ⅰ. Ⅰ. Ⅰ. GlobalGlobalGlobal EconomicEconomicEconomic ConditionsConditionsConditions▢ The global economy is expected to remain broadly consistent with the previous outlook, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, though had intensified, quickly subsided.§ In the United States, growth is expected to slow as the impact of recent tariff increases begins to take hold.§ In the euro area, growth is likely to remain modest despite accommodative monetary policy, due to the deteriorating trade environment.§ In China, while the economy continues to face headwinds from U.S. tariffs, domestic stimulus measures, such as the consumer goods trade-in program, are expected to provide upside support to growth.<Figure 1> Global PMI<Figure 2> U.S. Imports and Major Countries’ Exports to the U.S.Sources: JPM, S&P Global.Sources: Fed, Eurostat, General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.- 2 -Ⅱ. Ⅱ. Ⅱ. Developments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s Economy▢ Regarding Korea’s economy, despite sluggish construction investment, consumption has improved, supported by strong consumer sentiment and the supplementary budget, while exports have also performed better than expected. The growth outlook is expected to be heavily influenced by the developments of tariff negot