世界银行-构建可比较的全球贫困趋势（英）

Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note 45 Constructing Comparable Global Poverty Trends Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Elizabeth Foster, Christoph Lakner, Zander Prinsloo, Rostand Tchouakam Mbouendeu, and Samuel K. Tetteh-Baah June 2025 Keywords: Poverty; inequality; comparability; survey design; household surveys Development Data Group Development Research Group Poverty and Equity Global Department Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedGLOBAL POVERTY MONITORING TECHNICAL NOTE 45 Abstract Countries frequently revise how they measure income or consumption due to changes in data collection and questionnaire design. These changes create comparability breaks in poverty trends over time. This paper develops three methods to create global, regional, and country-level poverty trends that are comparable within countries over time. It does so by using national accounts growth to bridge non-comparable sequences. Accounting for comparability breaks creates large differences in some country-level poverty trends, but the global extreme poverty trend built from these comparable poverty series remains largely unchanged. All authors are with the World Bank. Corresponding author: Daniel Gerszon Mahler (dmahler@worldbank.org). The authors are grateful for feedback received from the Global Poverty Monitoring Working Group. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the UK government through the Data and Evidence for Tackling Extreme Poverty (DEEP) Research Programme. The Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note Series publishes short papers that document methodological aspects of the World Bank’s global poverty estimates. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Notes are available at https://pip.worldbank.org/publication. 1 1. Introduction In low- and middle-income countries, monetary poverty is measured using data from household surveys that elicit the income or consumption patterns of a representative sample of households in a country. If a household’s income or consumption falls short of a given poverty line, the household is classified as being poor. Numerous studies have shown that the design of household surveys impacts the data collected, measured income or consumption, and therefore also measured poverty rates (Beegle et al. 2012, De Weerdt et al 2020, Jolliffe 2001, Friedman et al. 2017, Kilic et al. 2019). For example, when measuring food consumption, it matters whether households are asked to keep a diary of their consumption or