美银美林：2020年，下个十年的十大趋势

>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 54 to 56. 12047306 Thematic Investing Transforming World: The 2020s Thematic Investing 11 November 2019 The Decade of Inflection: reaching boiling point We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change. At the same time, 3bn more people will be connected online and global data knowledge will be 32x greater than today. The social, political and economic responses to these challenges, all heading to a boiling point this decade, will overhaul traditional paradigms. We outline BofAML Transforming World’s top 10 themes to help investors navigate this decade ahead. 10 Themes for the Next 10 Years 1) Peak Globalization: the end of unrestricted free movement of labor, goods, and capital around the world. Winners: local markets, real assets; Losers: global markets. 2) Recession: record numbers of FMS investors think the global economy is late-cycle, the bond market bubble is set to unwind and populism is likely to be inflationary. Winners: inflation, real assets, infrastructure; Losers: growth, credit, deflation. 3) Quantitative Failure: monetary policy measures are proving less and less effective at boosting corporate and household “animal spirits”. Winners: Keynesianism, gold; Losers: financial assets, Monetarism. 4) Demographics: the number of grandparents will outnumber the world’s children; every second 5 people enter the EM middle class and Gen Z overtakes Millennials. Winners: eCommerce, new consumer; Losers: bricks & mortar, legacy consumer. 5) Climate Change: investors are more focused than ever on global warming’s impact on the economy, society, unemployment and migration. Winners: clean energy, electric vehicles; Losers: fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics. 6) Robots & Automation: up to 50% of jobs at risk of automation by 2035. Winners: automation, local production, big data & AI; Losers: humans, global supply chains. 7) Splinternet: China to overtake the US and become the world leader in AI by 2030. ‘Sovereign