UNDP-发展面临风险：在危机中保护收益，释放机遇（英）

1DEVELOPMENT AT RISKProtecting Gains and Unleashing Opportunities Amid CrisisJUNE 202523Copyright ©UNDP 2025. All rights reserved.One United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USAThe United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet. Learn more at undp.org or follow at @UNDP.UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet.Learn more at undp.org or follow at @UNDP.The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nation, incuding UNDP, or the UN Member States.45Table of ContentsForeword Acknowledgements Acronyms Executive Summary1. A World of Change 1.1 A view from the precipice 1.2 Choices and consequences2. Three Levers of Change 2.1 Rethink development outcomes 2.2 Reimagine governance 2.3 Reboot international cooperation3. Barriers to Change 3.1 The mental models and political economy holding us back 3.2 Paralysis is possible4. Navigating Risk and Uncertainty: Recommendations 4.1 Rethink development outcomes 4.2 Reimagine governance 4.3 Reboot International CooperationTechnical Annex A: Making Sense of Complex RisksTechnical Annex B: Solutions at WorkTechnical Annex C: Structural Transitions, Risks and AgencyAnnex D: Background Materials, Consultations and Peer ReviewsReferencesEndnotes78910181821232426353737384040414346566163657267ForewordOur world is navigating simultaneous structural transitions, from demographic and economic shifts to changing geopolitics, technological transformations, and crossing of planetary boundaries. These transitions are re-shaping every aspect of our lives. They are also unleashing complex risks, amplifying uncertainty, and fuelling cascading crises. How the world manages and overcomes these complex risks will play a pivotal role in deter-mining the course of development – and much more – in the years to come. Amid understandable alarm and a forensic attention to the cost of multiplying crises, however, there has been insufficient attention paid to charting a clear path forward through a web of complex risks. The United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Development at Risk Report aims to address this clear gap in the global discourse, offering fresh insights into the disruption we are witnessing and outlining actionable steps for development policy and public action.It argues that far too often and for too long, our collective effort in response to structural transitions has been narrowly focused on addressing symptoms or immediate manifestations, through h