AI Futures Project：2027年AI预测报告（英文版）

AI2027Daniel KokotajloScott AlexanderThomas LarsenEli LiflandRomeo DeanOriginally published onApril 3rd 2025 on AI-2027.comAI FuturesProjectDesign byLightcone InfrastructureAI 2027We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will beenormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. The CEOs of OpenAI,Google DeepMind, and Anthropic have all predicted that AGI will arrivewithin the next 5 years. Sam Altman has said OpenAI is setting its sights on“superintelligence in the true sense of the word” and the “glorious future.”It’s tempting to dismiss this as just hype. This would be a grave mistake—it isnot just hype. We have no desire to hype AI ourselves, yet we also think it isstrikingly plausible that superintelligence could arrive by the end of the decade.If we’re on the cusp of superintelligence, society is nowhere near prepared.Very few people have even attempted to articulate any plausible path throughthe development of superintelligence. We wrote AI 2027 to fill that gap,providing much needed concrete detail. We would love to see more work likethis in the world, especially from people who disagree with us. We hope thatby doing this, we’ll spark a broad conversation about where we’re headed andhow to steer toward positive futures.We wrote this scenario by repeatedly asking ourselves “what would happennext”. We started at the present day, writing the first period (up to mid-2025),then the following period, until we reached the ending. We weren’t trying toreach any particular ending. We then scrapped it and started over again, manytimes, until we had a finished scenario that we thought was plausible. Afterwe finished the first ending— the racing ending—we wrote a new alternativebranch because we wanted to also depict a more hopeful way things could end,starting from roughly the same premises.We won’t be right about everything — much of this is guesswork. But overthe course of this project, we did an immense amount of background research,expert interviews, and trend extrapolation to make the most informed guesseswe could. Moreover, our team has an excellent track record in forecasting,especially on AI. Daniel Kokotajlo, lead author, wrote a similar scenario 4 yearsago called “What 2026 Looks Like”, which aged remarkably well, and EliLifland is a top competitive forecaster.At the beginning of every chapter you will find a small chart in the right marginthat aims to give you a sense of the state of the world at the time that section ofthe scenario takes place. For a more detailed explanation of what these numbersmean, and much much more detail on our methodology, go to ai-2027.com.We hope you find AI 2027 helpful.Mid 2025: Stumbling AgentsThe world sees its first glimpse of AI agents.Advertisements for computer-using agents emphasize the term “personal assis-tant”: you can prompt them with tasks like “order me a burrito on DoorDash”or “open my budget spreadsheet and sum this month’s expenses.” They willcheck in with you as need