国际清算银行-对日益不确定的全球格局的投资（英）

BIS Bulletin No 103 Matthias Burgert, Michael Chui, Denis Gorea and Fabrizio Zampolli 11 June 2025 Investment in an increasingly uncertain global landscape BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to Jon Frost, Benoît Mojon, Hyun Song Shin, Frank Smets and Phil Wooldridge for helpful comments and Adam Cap and Yui Ching Li for excellent research assistance, and to Nicola Faessler and Danielle Ritzema for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-865-5 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Matthias Burgert Matthias.Burgert@bis.org Michael Chui Michael.Chui@bis.org Denis Gorea Denis.Gorea@bis.org Fabrizio Zampolli Fabrizio.Zampolli@bis.org Investment in an increasingly uncertain global landscape Key takeaways • Private business fixed investment has fallen or remained flat in advanced economies for decades, with a recent levelling-off also observed in several emerging market economies. • The recent increase in uncertainty due to trade tensions will dampen investment while also reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. • In the long run, the outlook for private business investment depends on the potential need to reconfigure supply chains disrupted by higher trade tariffs as well as governments’ efforts to boost public investment and implement structural reforms. Business fixed investment relative to GDP has long been stagnant or falling in many advanced economies (AEs) and, after decades of growth, has recently plateaued in emerging market economies (EMEs). The imposition of broad-based tariffs by the US administration and the resulting sharp increase in policy uncertainty risk exacerbate these trends in the near term, dampening investment and output. Higher uncertainty also tends to undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy, potentially amplifying these negative effects. That said, the longer-term outlook offers opportunities for an investment rebound. Private business investment could benefit from greater infrastructure and defence spending, as well as the reconfiguration of supply chains driven by the ongoing trade conflict. Realising this potential, however, will require government efforts to implement structural reforms and revamp existing regional trade agreements. This Bulletin begins by outlining the long-term trends in business investment, examines the potential impact of the current elevated uncertainty and conclud