联合国西亚经济社会委员会-西亚经社会贫困线的划分：验证研究（英）

Demarcation of ESCWA poverty lines A validation study E/ESCWA/CL2.GPID/2025/TP.6 Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia Demarcation of ESCWA poverty lines A validation study United Nations Beirut © 2025 United Nations All rights reserved worldwide Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), email: publications-escwa@un.org. Authors: Khalid Abu-Ismail, Rihab Baltaji and Vladimir Hlasny. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Links contained in this publication are provided for the convenience of the reader and are correct at the time of issue. The United Nations takes no responsibility for the continued accuracy of that information or for the content of any external website. References have, wherever possible, been verified. Mention of commercial names and products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. United Nations publication issued by ESCWA, United Nations House, Riad El Solh Square, P.O. Box: 11-8575, Beirut, Lebanon. Website: www.unescwa.org. 2500275Eiii Key messages • Global poverty monitoring calls for extending cross-country and cross-time poverty comparisons even to settings where there is no prior information about poverty. This requires the construction of consistent poverty lines from the available information, accounting for countries’ varying living standards just as national poverty lines do. • The ESCWA quasi-relative poverty lines that are rising in a concave fashion in mean household income have desirable conceptual and computational properties and are well suited for poverty projection to previously uncovered countries and years. • ESCWA poverty lines also empirically outperform their previously proposed alternatives – relative and fixed international poverty lines and their hybrids – in approximating national poverty lines and yielding reasonable poverty rates across different country groups. iv v Contents Key messages iii Introduction 1 1. Construction of ESCWA poverty lines 3 A. Data sources 3 B. Results 3 2. Does Engel’s law apply to broader baskets of basic needs expenditures?