ITIF-短路：半导体关税将如何损害美国经济和数字行业的领导地位（英）

itif.org Short-Circuited: How Semiconductor Tariffs Would Harm the U.S. Economy and Digital Industry Leadership STEPHEN EZELL, TRELYSA LONG, AND MEGHAN OSTERTAG | MAY 2025 Imposing blanket tariffs on U.S. semiconductor imports would imperil U.S. leadership across a broad range of digital and nondigital industries while significantly decreasing U.S. economic growth, raising prices, and jeopardizing broader U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. KEY TAKEAWAYS  A blanket 25 percent tariff on U.S. semiconductor imports would produce a 0.18 percent downturn in U.S. economic growth in the first year, and if sustained over 10 years, would result in a 0.76 percent slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the 10th year.  A 10 percent tariff would result in 0.06 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth foregone in the first year and 0.20 percent in the 10th year.  The average American citizen would forego $122 in living standard growth the first year after imposition of 25 percent semiconductor tariffs. By the 10th year, Americans would forego a cumulative total of $4,208 worth of growth in their living standards.  The United States would lose billions more in tax revenues due to diminished economic growth than it would collect in tariff revenues—equating to a net loss of $165 billion in the 10th year if 25 percent tariffs were maintained over that duration.  Data centers, which represent essential infrastructure for the U.S. AI industry, require hundreds of thousands of semiconductors. A 25 percent tariff would reduce U.S. competitiveness in AI and cede global market share in this critical industry to China.  Semiconductor tariffs would not only raise prices for every downstream good that depends on them—from autos to medical devices to household appliances—but also make manufacturing these goods in the United States less globally competitive. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | MAY 2025 PAGE 2 CONTENTS Key Takeaways ...................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 2 Modeling the Economic Impact of Possible U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs ...................................... 3 Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................. 5 Revenue Analysis ............................................................................................................... 8 The Implications of Tariffs on Data Centers ............................................................................ 10 Importance of Semiconductors in Data Centers ................................................................... 12 Impact of Data Centers on the U.S. Economy...................................................................... 15 Case Study: Northern Virginia .............