CEPR-伟大的贸易黑客：特朗普的贸易战如何失败，全球贸易如何继续（英）

RICHARD BALDWINRAPID RESPONSEECONOMICS5and the World Moves onHow Trump’s Trade War FailsThe Great Trade Hack:How Trump’s Trade War Fails and the World Moves onCEPR PRESSCentre for Economic Policy Research187 boulevard Saint-Germain | 75007, Paris, France2 Coldbath Square | London, EC1R 5HL, UKEmail: cepr@cepr.orgWeb: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-912179-92-3Rapid Response Economics Series, Copyright © CEPR Press, 2025The Great Trade Hack: How Trump’s Trade War Fails and the World Moves onRichard BaldwinIMD Business School, Lausanne CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR)The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 1,900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’. It was founded in the UK in 1983, where it is a Charity, and in November 2019 CEPR initiated the creation of an Association under French law, in order to provide a vehicle for an expansion in France. The members of the Conseil d’Administration of the Association are identical to the UK Board of Trustees. CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members, projects that it runs and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees/members of the Conseil d’Administration of the Association do not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and not those of CEPR.Chair of the Board Sir Charlie BeanFounder and Honorary President Richard PortesPresident Beatrice Weder di MauroVice Presidents Maristella Botticini Antonio Fatás Ugo Panizza Hélène ReyChief Executive Officer Tessa OgdenContentsExecutive Summary viiPrologue: No disaster yet x1 The Great Trade Hack 12 The Grievance Doctrine 53 Chaos: By design or dysfunction? 154 Why tariffs won’t help the middle class but still win in Washington 275 Why is Trump’s trade policy so chaotic? 336 Tariffs can’t fix trade deficits 477 The US–China conflict is not a trade war 598 Will the Hack pull the world apart? 679 Did the Hack break the world trade order? 7710 Strategies for the post-American-leadership era 8311 Why leaders must step up 93Annex 1: Historical examples of tariffs and industrialisation 99Annex 2: Two telling examples of exchange rates offsetting shocks that would otherwise be thought to improve the trade deficit 107vIITHE GREAT TRADE HACKExecutive SummaryOn 2 April 2025, President Donald Trump launched a sweeping tariff offensive that shook the foundations of global trade. Wh