英文【美世】改进洪水风险量化和管理：2024年海湾洪水

1 GUY CARPENTER Improving Flood Risk Quantification and Management – Gulf Flooding 2024 BD-2655-REP-CAT Improving Flood Risk Quantification and Management GULF FLOODING 2024 Global Peril Advisory, Guy Carpenter May 2025 The flooding that affected the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman and surrounding areas is considered one of the most impactful flooding events in the Gulf’s recent history. Natural climate variability played a key role in the severity of this event, and a lack of adequate drainage resulted in significant damage. Human-induced climate change may have also contributed to the intensity of rainfall. This highlights the importance of quantifying flood risk to inform appropriate decision making. Covered Topics Key Features of the April 2024 Gulf Flooding Natural Variability How Could Climate Change Impact Future Flood Risk? Rainfall Characteristics Cloud Seeding Quantifying and Managing Flood Risk Why Was the Flooding So Severe? Drainage and Vulnerability to Flooding Conclusion 2 GUY CARPENTER Improving Flood Risk Quantification and Management – Gulf Flooding 2024 BD-2655-REP-CAT Key Features of the April 2024 Gulf Flooding Heavy rainstorms and flash flooding impacted the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Bahrain and Iran in April 2024. The flooding affected roads and properties, causing damage and disrupting travel. Based on Guy Carpenter’s analysis (as of August 31, 2024), Guy Carpenter estimates total insured losses arising from this event to exceed USD 2.9 billion and could reach as high as USD 3.4 billion for the UAE (of which motor represents about 10%).1 Guy Carpenter estimates this insured loss event to be a 1-in-70 to 1-in-180-year event, with an average around a 1-in-100-year event. The return periods of this event are estimates; they are based on a range of loss estimate and vary for different portfolios. 1 Post-Event Report: Gulf Floods Update - September 2024 Key Takeaways • Heavy rainstorms and flash flooding impacted the UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Iran in April 2024. • Based on Guy Carpenter’s analysis (as of August 31, 2024), Guy Carpenter estimates total insured losses arising from this event to exceed USD 2.9 billion and could reach as high as USD 3.4 billion for the UAE (of which motor represents approximately 10%). • The National Center of Meteorology announced that the UAE experienced the largest amount of rainfall since 1949, with more than 250 millimetres (mm) in a single day. • The rainfall intensity was partly due to natural variability (El Niño) and climate change. Cloud seeding was not found to have any significant effect. • Insufficient drainage worsened impacts, with motorists disrupted by the flooding when roads became impassable. • After the flooding, His Highness Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the current UAE president and ruler of Abu Dhabi, announced a large-scale infrastructure project, known as Tasreef, to upgrade the UAE’s flood defences starting in 2025. This