英文【高盛】美国高盛经济指标更新（林德尔斯）

Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index eased by 22.5bp to 99.21 over the last week, mostly due to higher equity prices, and the real GS US FCI eased by 23.9bp to 98.81: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCUSA: GS Economic Indicators Update (Rindels)19 May 2025 | 5:15PM EDT Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. 96979899100101102969798991001011022013201520172019202120232025GS Nominal FCIGS Real (Inflation-Adjusted) FCIIndexIndexGS US Financial Conditions IndicesTightening-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.01 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 420192020202120222023202420252026As of May. 16:NominalReal (Inflation-Adjusted)Percentage pointsPercentage pointsReal US GDP Growth Impulse from GS FCI,3-Quarter Centered Moving AverageNote: The impulses assume that the FCI stays flat following the listed date. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research -22.50.02.7-3.4-23.92.1US FCIFed Funds10-yr TSYBBBCredit SpreadLog SPXLog TWI-30-25-20-15-10-50510-30-25-20-15-10-50510Basis pointsBasis pointsTighteningChange in GS Nominal FCI & Components Since May 12, 2025 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research19 May 2025 2Goldman SachsUSAWe lowered our Q2 GDP forecast to +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized): Our US MAP index of economic surprises declined on net to -0.36: -10123456-10123456JulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay2023 Q32023 Q42024 Q12024 Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Daily Advance GDP Tracking EstimatePercent change, annual ratePercent change, annual rateOfficial "Advance"EstimatesAdvance Q1 GDP Tracking Estimate202320242025 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research -3-2-101234-3-2-101234Jun-21Nov-21Apr-22Sep-22Feb-23Jul-23Dec-23May-24Oct-24Mar-25IndexIndexUS MAP Surprise Index Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research19 May 2025 3Goldman SachsUSAOur preliminary May Current Activity Indicator now stands at +0.6% (vs. -0.3% in April): Capex Tracker: MayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMay-2-101234-2-101234ManufacturingConsumerLaborHousing