英文【高盛】中国房地产周度综述：第20周综述-交易回升，出口导向型城市表现更为乐观

Research | Equity Yi Wang, CFA +86(21)2401-8930 | yi.wang@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited Shi Xu +86(21)2401-8929 | shi.x.xu@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited Kaiyan Jing +86(21)2411-8092 | kaiyan.jing@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company LimitedKey data points New homes sales volume on average was +12% wow nand +21% yoy, with tier-1 and Northern outperforming. Secondary transactions on average were +42% wow nand +23% yoy, with positive price appreciation expectations from agents but not homeowners. MTD May: Primary GFA sold on median was -5% mom nand was -12% yoy, where tier-1/2/3 was -1%/-4%/-7% mom and +11%/-14%/-11% yoy, respectively. Secondary GFA sold on median was -26% mom and -6% yoy, where tier-1/2/3 was -24%/-27%/-24% mom and +6%/-7%/-9% yoy, respectively. YTD: Primary GFA sold was +2% yoy on city-average nbasis and +5% yoy on aggregated volume basis; secondary GFA sold was +9% yoy on city-average basis and +26% yoy on aggregated volume basis. Inventory balance was flattish wow and -2.4% from nend-24 level, with inventory months at 26.3 (vs. average 25.9 in Apr-25). Valuation: Offshore coverage developers on average nsaw share price decline -2% wow (vs. -1% for MSCI 20 May 2025 | 7:01AM CSTChina Property Weekly Wrap Week 20 Wrap - Transactions rebounded with more upbeat performance from export-oriented cities Key highlights for the week: Our tariff impact assessment (Exhibit 1 to Exhibit 4, more details on methodology) showcases more upbeat performance from export-reliant cities: 1) transaction: under web-registration metrics, the most export-reliant cities outperformed in primary (+26% wow in aggregated volume vs. flattish for rest cities) but lagged peers in secondary (+22% wow vs. +44% for rest cities). That said, their secondary subscription sales (nuances between sales metrics detailed here) outperformed sequentially (+2% wow vs. -4% for rest cities); 2) secondary visitor traffic improved 2% wow in export-reliant cities (vs. -3% for other cities) while their secondary listing supply dropped 7% wow (vs. -3% for other cities). 3) sentiment wise, price expectation from both agents (CSI) and homesellers (CAI) was held largely stable, but new home search activities moderated (-3% wow, 2% below the level before tariff announcements). Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. China), with Greentown (3900.HK, Buy) outperforming at +2% wow; Onshore