世界银行-越南宏观监测，2025年4月（英）

1 VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING April 2025 WHAT’ NEW? • GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent (y/y) in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent (y/y) in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment. • Merchandise exports slowed in Q1-2025 to 10.6 percent compared to 16.8 percent in the same period in 2024, driven by a combination of high base effects and potential slowdown in global demand.1 Additionally, while FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent y/y in Q1-2025, reflecting uncertain outlook, FDI disbursements remained resilient, registering $4.9 billion over Q1-2025 (+7.1 percent y/y, similar to Q1-2024). • Industrial production increased by 8.6 percent y/y in March 2025, compared to 4.8 percent y/y in March 2024, driven by apparel, electronics and machinery. The PMI entered expansionary territory (50.5) in March after three months of contraction, driven by growth in new orders despite high uncertainties. • Total retail sales of goods and services surged by 10.8 percent y/y, marking the highest monthly growth in nearly two years. • Inflation increased to 3.1 percent y/y in March 2025 (+0.2 pp from February) due to rising prices of food and housing, but remains below SBV’s target of 4.5-5 percent for 2025. • Revenue collection for the first three months of 2025 reached 36.7 percent of the State budget’s annual plan compared to 31.7 percent in the same period of 2024, driven by increases in VAT and corporate income tax collection. However, the public investment disbursement rate slowed as of end of March 2025, reaching 9.5 percent of Prime Minister’s annual plan, below the 12.3 percent execution rate from the same period of last year. TO WATCH • Increased global trade policy uncertainty is expected to affect trade and investment in the near term. In particular, FDI new commitments and disbursements may continue to be prudent in the coming months. • Approval of new public investment projects and acceleration of their implementation will be important to support the government’s 8 percent real GDP growth target for 2025. Viet Nam Monthly Macro Monitoring Dashboard Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Industrial Production (y/y) 4.8% 6.3% 10.0% 12.4% 11.1% 8.4% 10.8% 7.0% 8.0% 8.8% -1.0% 17.6% 8.6% Manufacturing PMI 49.86 50.34 50.28 54.72 54.70 52.43 47.35 51.19 50.79 49.77 48.93 49.25 50.46 Retail sales (y/y) 9.2% 9.0% 9.5% 9.1% 9.4% 7.9% 7.6% 7.1% 8.8% 9.3% 9.5% 9.4% 10.8% Merchandise exports (y/y) 12.9% 11.0% 17.5% 13.2% 20.2% 15.2% 10.8% 10.2% 8.2% 12.8% -4.0% 25.7% 14.5% Merchandise imports (y/y) 9.4% 18.8% 29.9% 14.4% 25.0% 14.7% 11.1% 13.6% 9.8% 19.2% -2.6% 40.0% 19.0% CPI (y/y) 4.0% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% Core inflation (y/y) 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% Ex. rate (VND/USD, y/y) 1.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 3.3% FDI disbursement (YTD, y/y) 7.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.2% 8.4% 8