硅谷银行年第二季度经济报告（英）

2nd Quarter 2025SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and Performance•The first quarter of 2025 saw a new administration enter the White House and open up a wider range of outcomes for the global economy and financial markets. •Uncertainty around tariffs became a driving factor for inflation and economic growth expectations. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell noted it will be difficult to assess the inflation impact from tariffs. While uncertainty is “unusually elevated,” Powell reiterated that the Fed is well-positioned to monitor financial conditions and economic data to inform decisions.•The unemployment rate was little changed in March at 4.2%. Heightened uncertainty around economic and trade policies may weigh on the labor market in the coming months.•Various consumer confidence indicators have shifted lower after tariff actions and spending cuts at the federal government. Investors are awaiting additional data, such as retail sales, to see if decreased confidence transfers into consumer behavior.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT | #0425-0054TD-1231253US GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024.Final GDP estimates were slightly above the previous reading and expectations. It is unclear, however, how the administration’s tariff policy and federal workforce reform will affect economic growth in 2025.Both investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) bonds delivered strong returns in Q1 2025.US bond markets achieved positive returns in the first quarter, driven by declining interest rates, growing economic uncertainty and a “flight to quality” from falling equities. However, policy jitters have also led to subsequent volatility in fixed income assets, particularly for longer maturities.The US equity sector faced sharp corrections in Q1 2025.US equities faced declines amidst uncertainties surrounding monetary policy and renewed worries about the economic effect of tariffs. Volatility was prevalent, especially in the technology and biotech sectors.Labor market conditions are solid.Total non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate remained steadyat 4.2%. Powell stated that conditions in the labor market are “broadly in balance.”The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady at both its January and March 2025 meetings.The committee stated that policy is in a “good place,” allowing it to be patient regarding policy easing going forward. The market expects at least three rate cuts by the end of 2025.Inflation has moderated in 2025.As of end of March, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator — rose 2.8% year-over-year (YoY). The Fed reiterated that it expects inflation to continue to decline in 2025, although tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT | #0425-00